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Statistical analysis

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The stats are working against bitcoin bulls today

Bitcoin futures followed their seasonal tendency to rally on Thanksgiving Day. And pattern is to hold true today, it could be set for a down day as we veer into the weekend.

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With Wall Street bucking its Thanksgiving trend, the ASX could struggle

Wall Street indices took the relatively rare step of ignoring its tendency to rally ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, and price action suggests there could be deeper pullback. Which may not bode so well for ASX 200 bulls who may be sleeping behind their wheel around a record high.

Research

Markets tracked their historical norm on election day, volatile reversals incoming?

We saw the usual risk-on bounce election day tends to bring. But if markets continue to track their historical averages, we’re in for some volatile reversals today.

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JPY tends to rise and indices fall the Friday before a US election

A less-dovish BOJ may have strengthened the yen while weak tech earnings weighed on Wall Street Thursday, but these patters could persist on Friday if they follow their usual pre-election path looking, according to historical data.

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So how volatile are US elections anyway?

With just one week to go until the US election, we take a statistical look at how key markets have performed in the days surrounding this major event.

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USD index on track for its best week in 25 ahead of NFP

Yes, I may have just given the USD the kiss of death with that headline. Besides, the dollar has already rallied for four days into the release, so it may take a strong report overall to avoid a profit-taking pullback.

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S&P 500 analysis: September is not usually the kindest to Wall Street

The S&P 500 trades just shy of its record high as we head into September, a month which averaged negative returns and closed lower about 55% of the time over the past four decades.

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