PMI

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil prices face mounting pressures between clean energy transitions, geopolitical risks, and surplus concerns for 2025. Prices are now testing a critical 4-year support zone, challenging the continuation of the broader downtrend.

EURUSD Forecast: The DXY’s rally, fueled by the Trump market effect, paused at the 107-mark, offering a potential breather for EURUSD, which is holding above the 1.05 support level.

US data continues to outperform, with flash PMIs and jobless claims being the latest to shine. Yet despite soft PMIs from the EU and UK, the US dollar had its worst day of its recent surge, with MOF comments strengthening the yen to send USD/JPY lower.

GBP/USD has fallen to a technical juncture ahead of flash PMI reports from the UK, EU and US.

GBPUSD Forecast: The GBPUSD is rebounding after dovish sentiment from the UK’s falling inflation pushed it to the 1.30 support level, which aligns with a 15-year consolidation pattern. Is the rebound sustainable?

Australia’s ‘flash’ services purchasing managers index (PMI) for August hardly conveys a message of an economy in need of monetary support, raising questions over market pricing that looks for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to begin cutting rates as soon as December.

Flash PMIs are the notable economic data releases nest week, although the headline event will be Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. It will allow him to hammer home the Fed’s stance on Friday, and therefore likely to take precedence over the FOMC minutes released two days prior. Canada’s inflation report is key for BOC watchers, who continue to make their cash rate decision on a ‘per meeting’ basis.

For the first week in a while, US data is not dominating the market focus. With a key US inflation report and FOMC meeting freshly in the rear-view mirror, markets can now shift attention to domestic data. Three top-tier central banks meet next week, including the RBA on Tuesday, followed by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Bank of England (BOE) on Thursday. UK inflation data on Wednesday could set the tone for what to expect at future BOE meetings. Flash PMIs across Asia, Europe, and the US then close out the week, which can shape expectations for future growth and inflationary pressures.

With policymakers continuing to rollout stimulus measures, it’s questionable whether the USD/CNH pop will last.

As activity in other advanced economies starts to splutter, Japan is firing up.

The annual Jackson Hole symposium has arrived, and once again Jerome Powell will be the highlight of the event. Last year his speech marked the beginning of a 20% decline for the S&P 500 (which was already in a bear market), so his words clearly packed a punch. We also have retail sales data for the UK, Canada and the US and earnings from a few US companies can also help us measure consumer sentiment.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a popular formula to measure the monthly economic change in a country’s manufacturing sector. Traders can use it as a leading indicator to foresee economic developments.

The debt ceiling negotiations drag on for at least another day (and likely for the rest of the week). For now we can focus on today’s flash PMIs and how EUR/USD reacts.

PMI data for Japan and Australian has surpassed expectations, which provides a positive lead for flash PMI data from Europe and the US. Meanwhile, USD/JPY bulls eye a move to 140.

Oil prices have stabilised following OPEC’s surprise oil production cut, which now allows traders to switch their focus over to Swiss inflation, flash PMI and ISM reports.

The prices sub-index rose to 51.3 in February, up from 44.5 in January, indicating that manufacturers are paying more for inputs.

EUR/GBP sold off aggressively after the UK posted a stronger flash PMI than that of the Euro Area.