Inflation

EURUSD, Nasdaq Forecast: Eurozone inflation data is in focus as EURUSD hovers near two-year lows. Meanwhile, irregular market volatility surrounding Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year is poised to dominate headlines, alongside key US economic data and Federal Reserve rate expectations in early December.

The Fed is seen as nearly 50/50 to cut interest rates again in December after Donald Trump and the Republicans secured a “Red Wave” last week - see what to expect from US CPI!

The Fed has shifted its focus to employment data, but after a stellar jobs report, could CPI pick up again?

AUD/USD has broken to the highest level since early January, driven by a surprisingly strong monthly inflation report. However, the underlying detail suggests we may see a big deceleration in the annual rate next month, raising questions as to whether the move will stick with so many major risk events approaching on the horizon.

Traders may view any near-term GBP/USD dips toward the 50-day EMA near 1.2800 as buying opportunities.

GBP/USD could pull back off 1-year highs at 1.3000 given the 17-year high in speculative long positioning, per the CFTC’s COT report.

US data steps away from the limelight to make way for inflation reports from the UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Japan. And throw in an ECB meeting, Australian employment report and the CCP's Third Plenum for good measure.

Traders and economists expect the US CPI report to fall to 3.1% y/y on a headline basis, with the “Core” (ex-food and -energy) reading expected to hold steady at 3.4% y/y.

With traders keen to see who will be the first among the BOE, BOC or RBNZ to cut rates, their attention will be surely on next week's inflation reports for their respective regions.

The biggest economic data release of this week, and arguably the whole month – US CPI – didn’t disappoint in terms of its market impact.

Bond markets make the financial markets go round, so when they provide a strong signal on how Wednesday’s US consumer price inflation report may be interpreted, every trader should sit up and take notice.

Long bond bulls will not like the message coming from the recent price action in the TLT ETF, warning of the potential for higher yields and increased capital losses. With little technical support below where it currently sits, it places even more importance on the Fed chooses to signal this week.

GBP/USD remains in a bullish technical position ahead of the US CPI report - see what we're watching!

Traders are pricing in a small, but non-zero, chance of a Fed rate hike in 2024. Those odds could grow with a couple more hotter-than-expected inflation reports.

Gold is carrying short-term bullish momentum into the coming week, with potential for a move up toward the 2024 highs in the $2060 area.

US CPI may be quiet this month, but the recent surge in the “Prices” component of the ISM PMI surveys hints that inflation could reaccelerate this Spring.

AUD/USD traders will keep a close eye on US inflation data to decipher Fed policy, Australia's employment report to see if another month of strong job losses ensues.