FX Monthly Trade

It’s hard not to like gold in an environment of heightened geopolitical tension, soaring government budget deficits and elevated mining costs.

USD/JPY has been a particularly tricky pair to trade with its small daily ranges beneath a big resistance level. But with key economic data from the US, a Powell speech and next week's BOJ meeting in the pipeline, it can't stay trapped there for ever. Besides, forex trading can be like a fine wine, as a currency needs to be paired wisely to heighten its trading potential. And that has placed EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY into focus for potential setups.

AUD/USD has been given every opportunity to continue spiraling lower recently and hasn’t. Perhaps there's a message in that?

EUR/USD fell for 9th week by Friday's close, its worst weekly run since 1997. Yet whilst that could mean it is 'owed' a bounce, history suggests such bearish runs are later accompanied by further losses, as macro themes can trump technicals during such times. And that places this week's FOMC meeting into focus, where we discuss the likelihood that it might be more dovish than markets currently are pricing in.

The Jackson Hole symposium, an annual economic policy conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, has arrived. And Jerome Powell's speech will be the highlight. We look at what impact it could have on AUD/USD.

US inflation and Thursday's BOE meeting are key events for GBP/USD traders to keep an eye on, ahead of the UK's data dump on Friday.

The US dollar was the weakest major on Wednesday, allowing EUR/USD to close in on its YTD high. But can it break such a milestone upon its first retest?

With volatility and headline risk remaining high, we take a look at some of the key drivers and how to approach the currency market under such conditions.

The main job for traders this week will be to continue to digest the implications of last week’s historic moves by key central banks.

Last week USDJPY locked in an almost 3% gain, closing back above 130 for the first time since early May.

At the recent FOMC meeting, Chair Powell signalled that follow up 50bp rate hikes were likely at the June and July meetings. This means we are now just four weeks away from the Fed’s next 50 bp hike and two weeks away from the start of QT.

With prices falling whilst futures traders increase their bullish exposure to the Australian dollar, we’re keen to see if it can hold above 0.73 and form a countertrend bounce.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves through global commodity markets. However, it's not only been metals and energy markets where extreme stress has been evident.

In late January, the inflation rate in the Euro Area rose to 5.1% y/Y, higher than the 4.4% expected and much higher than the ECB’s most recent staff forecasts of 3.2%.

It's been a volatile start to 2022 for the AUDUSD, beating a hasty retreat after popping briefly above .7300c early last week following November's bumper retail sales data.

This week we return to the FX space for our Weekly Trade Idea to focus on the AUDUSD. The AUDUSD was the subject of our last FX Trade idea in mid-November, which narrowly missed our sell zone before falling 400 pips!!!

Last week the highest U.S. inflation rate in 30 years and an underwhelming Australian labour force report conspired to send the AUDUSD to a low of .7276c, 3 ½ percent below its .7555 high from just 3 weeks ago.