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EUR/USD Forecast: Focus Turns to US Inflation Data in Week Ahead

With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, US CPI data, and key corporate earnings due this week, the EUR/USD forecast remains cautiously bearish.

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Dollar forecast: NFP and hot inflation expectations trigger DXY rebound - Forex Friday

Friday's data showing strong wages growth and hot inflation expectations, and ongoing expectations of inflationary policies under Donald Trump, means the Fed is likely to remain on pause for a long time. Against this backdrop, the US dollar forecast remains bullish.

USD/CAD: Jobs Data Collision Could Cement Loonie’s Reversal

Key reversal in play for USD/CAD—Friday’s jobs reports could determine whether the Loonie’s comeback sticks.

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February 7, 2025 04:51 AM

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USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD: Key levels heading into NFP

As you’d expect, volatility has been contained ahead of NFP, but implied volatility has blown out. The 1-day IV for USD/JPY is nearly twice its 10-day average, with GBP/USD and EUR/USD around 50% more than usual.

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February 7, 2025 04:39 AM
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USD/JPY selloff inflicts heavy technical damage ahead of key US jobs data

Yen bulls are pressing the advantage, but with a messy US payrolls report looming, traders need to stay nimble.

GBP/JPY bears ride the wave of divergent BOE, BOJ policy expectations

A dovish BOE cut and bets that a BOJ hike could be much closer than expected saw GBP/JPY lead the way lower on Thursday. But price action across the board suggests it could be year of the yen.

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Dollar forecast: US Dollar Index (DXY) off highs on firmer risk appetite

FX investors are looking forward to the release of US nonfarm payrolls report, due tomorrow, which should impact the near-term dollar forecast.

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February 6, 2025 05:30 PM
Jobs

NFP Preview: Is the Stage Set for Another Strong Jobs Report (and USD Rally)?

NFP leading indicators point to a potentially above-expectation reading in Friday's jobs report - see what it might mean for the US Dollar!

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So how good is APD at predicting NFP, anyway?

With the monthly ADP payrolls figures delivering a solid set of data ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, I take a closer look to see if the ADP can help pick the direction of NFP.

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Treasury Breakout Reshapes Markets: Gold Roars, USD/CHF Stumbles

Bond bulls just kicked the door down. US Yields are sinking, gold is soaring, and USD/CHF is on the ropes. What happens next?

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EUR/JPY forecast: Strong Japanese wages boost yen, BoJ rate hike bets

Today, the USD/JPY hit fresh 2025 lows under 153.00, thanks largely to a weaker US dollar and Japanese data showing domestic wages rising at the fastest pace in 28 years. Among the JPY crosses, the EUR/JPY downside remains compelling, given a not-so-strong euro. Therefore, the EUR/JPY forecast looks at least moderately bearish as things stand.

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February 5, 2025 02:45 PM
Multiple Euro bank notes in 20€, 50€ and 100€

EUR/USD forecast: Key risk remains tariffs as focus momentarily shifts to data

While it may be up for the third consecutive day now, the medium-term EUR/USD forecast is not yet completely positive. After all, the Eurozone is subject to prolonged trade negotiations with the Trump administration.

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February 5, 2025 12:30 PM
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USD/JPY: Traders May Be Underestimating BoJ’s Next Move

Japan’s economy is showing resilience, with wages rising and the services sector gaining momentum. As the BoJ watches March wage talks closely, traders betting on a slow tightening cycle may be in for a surprise. With swap markets underpricing the risks, could a BoJ rate hike come sooner than expected?

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February 5, 2025 02:37 AM
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NZD/USD: Surging Unemployment Keeps RBNZ on Aggressive Rate Cut Path

New Zealand’s labour market is weakening fast, with unemployment hitting a four-year high and wage pressures fading. Markets are betting the RBNZ will slash rates again, but will it be enough to shift the Kiwi’s fate, or is offshore sentiment still in control?

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February 4, 2025 10:44 PM
Multiple Euro bank notes in 20€, 50€ and 100€

Forex Seasonality – February 2025: Trade War to “Trump” Seasonality?

The budding trade war and developments on the tariff front could well outweigh the modest historical seasonal tendencies in February for forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY.

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Canadian dollar forecast: USD/CAD and EUR/CAD – Technical Tuesday

FX pairs like the EUR/CAD may ease back further following yesterday’ decision by Trump to delay the tariffs on Canada. That decision means the near-term Canadian dollar forecast is no longer bearish, making the EUR/CAD an ideal pair to look for bearish setups on for CAD bulls. Meanwhile, USD/CAD is beginning to look rather interesting.

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USD/CNH: China Fires Back with Tariffs as Markets Brace for Fallout

China wasted no time retaliating against fresh US tariffs, slapping duties on crude oil, LNG, and farm equipment while launching a probe into Google. USD/CNH is holding up for now, but will key resistance levels crack when the PBOC steps in post-Lunar New Year?

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USD/CAD: Trade Whipsaw Signals Reversal as Tariff Threat Eases

Canada’s last-minute tariff deal sent USD/CAD on a wild ride, reversing a 22-year low for the Loonie. With a shooting star candle and momentum turning, is a near-term top in place—or just another pause before the next leg higher?

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February 4, 2025 12:31 AM
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Expansive ISM, hot GDP estimate leaves no wriggle room for Fed doves

You’ll be forgiven for not realising that economic data was released on Monday, amid the influx of trade war headlines. But if US growth estimates and manufacturing are anything to go by, we’re in for another hot ISM services print later this week.

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GBP/USD forecast: Tariffs, US jobs and BoE rate decision in focus – Currency Pair of the Week

Although the pound has fallen along with other major currencies, it may be able to regain its poise with Trump suggesting that a deal "can be worked out" with the UK. This means the risks to the GBP/USD forecast are less pronounced than the likes of the Canadian dollar or the euro.

EURUSD, Gold Forecast: Markets Spiral on Trade War Risks

EURUSD, Gold Forecast: As Trump tariff risks involving Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU return to the headlines, the US Dollar Index (DXY) surged on inflation momentum, while global markets plunged. However, safe-haven assets may remain resilient.

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February 3, 2025 08:35 AM
Research

VIX shorts rose to 6-month high ahead of Trump tariffs: COT report

Some bullish fingers have likely been burned at this week's open, given the relatively bullish positioning on S&P 500 futures alongside short bets against the VIX rising to a 6-month high last week.

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USD Surges as Trump’s Tariffs Bite—EUR, CNH Slide, CAD Slumps to New Lows

Trump's tariff escalation has sparked fresh volatility across major currency pairs, pushing the US dollar to new heights. EUR/USD, USD/CAD, and USD/CNH are now at key technical levels, with traders bracing for potential breakouts or bounces. Here's what you need to know.