Election

The Fed is seen as nearly 50/50 to cut interest rates again in December after Donald Trump and the Republicans secured a “Red Wave” last week - see what to expect from US CPI!

If you haven’t heard already, Donald Trump has been elected as President of the United States. flipped the senate and on the cusp of taking the house. A risk-on session ensued, which played nicely for AUD/JPY bulls - who now have 103 in focus.

The immediate response in the commodities space to the Republican’s clean sweep victory has been a bearish one - especially for industrial metals. Copper and silver fell over 4% each, tracking weaker iron ore prices, while gold was off by around 3%. Crude prices fell too but came sharply off their earlier lows.

Markets are making big moves on the back of Trump’s win and if House results confirm a Republican supermajority, there could be drive for even further highs in stocks and Bitcoin. The US Dollar, however…

The rationale behind the US stock market rally is that Trump is seen as business-friendly and will be able to pass on his tax cuts through easily without much resistance from the democrats who have lost control of the senate.

We saw the usual risk-on bounce election day tends to bring. But if markets continue to track their historical averages, we’re in for some volatile reversals today.

The US Dollar is pulling back on election day and the currency is no longer overbought on the daily chart. In this webinar I looked at several election-related setups and in this article I look at a few of those in USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD.

USD/JPY surged 10% off the yearly low with the bulls relenting at key resistance ahead of US elections / FOMC. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts.

The yellow metal ended Friday near its session lows, creating some bearish-looking price candles on both the daily and weekly time frames. So the near-term gold forecast is somewhat bearish ahead of the much-anticipated US presidential election and the FOMC’s policy meeting in the week head.

Market participants are closely watching the potential impact of a Trump victory on European and Chinese assets, given the possibility of renewed tariffs. This is the primary factor affecting the EUR/USD forecast, likely limiting gains to around 1.0900 and exposing further downside in the near-term outlook.

As the US elections draw near, the potential impacts of a Trump or Harris administration on the UAE are being closely examined. Changes in US policies could bring significant effects across various sectors in the UAE, though the country's economic resilience is expected to remain robust.

A brutal day for risk sent Wall Street indices lower on Thursday, but support levels and the tendency for stocks to rise on the week of a US election could help the S&P 500 and ASX 200. Assuming the wheels don't truly fall off first.

A less-dovish BOJ may have strengthened the yen while weak tech earnings weighed on Wall Street Thursday, but these patters could persist on Friday if they follow their usual pre-election path looking, according to historical data.

With a key measure of US inflation and consumer spending both rising more than expected, adding to the other signs of an economy proving more resilient than the Fed and others had expected, and not to mention the rising probability of the dollar-positive Trump gaining a lead in the polls, the greenback is likely to remain on the front-foot. Thus, the near-term USD/JPY forecast is still bullish, barring a major risk-off event that could support yen’s haven appeal.

US equities have fallen at the start of today’s US session, following on the losses from the previous day and weaker global markets. The tech sector is in the spotlight following underwhelming earnings reports from Meta and Microsoft, with the latter falling in excess of 5% shortly after the open.

Coming in the lead up to a tightly-contested Presidential election, this month’s NFP report could have an outsized impact on sentiment and the US dollar.

market participants are eyeing the possible implications of a Trump victory on European and Chinese assets amid the potential for renewed tariffs. This is the number one factor weighing on the EUR/USD forecast, potentially capping the gains to around 1.0900. More key data will follow in the next couple of days, with Eurozone CPI and US Core PCE to come on Thursday, and the ISM Services PMI and Non-farm Payrolls data will be on the way on Friday.