Bonds

USD/JPY bulls are on the back foot as US bond yields retreat, triggering a key technical break. With Scott Bessent’s bold fiscal plan easing fears and Fed rate cut bets fading, the pair now skews firmly to the downside.

It's not every day you see gold plunge alongside yields. But that is what Monday served on reports of a potential ceasefire in Gaza and Trump's picking a relatively 'safe pair of hands' for the US Treasury Secretary role. With a prominent swing high on gold, I suspect it could be headed much lower from here.

Another day, another handle for USD/JPY which rose to a fresh multi-decade higher. Bond yields also continued to rally after the Biden-Trump debate, which has markets concerned that a more inflationary presidency under Trump seems the more likely outcome.

If the 2-year yield is right, it suggests the USD could be set to rise over the near term. And I suspect that PCE inflation could be the trigger. For now, risk off tones are in the air.

Bond markets make the financial world go round, helping to grease the wheels of commerce, allowing the economy activity to expand. But when too much debt is issued, it can overwhelm demand, causing borrowing costs to spike which can be detrimental to the economy.

The suspected intervention from the BOJ this week has changed the game for USD/JPY, placing a rather large barrier in the way of further upside at a time when US bond yields were already looking toppy.

The US 2-year bond yield remains support, which is capping the yield at 5% and weighed on the US dollar. And that helped AUD/USD rise for a second day ahead of a key AU CPI report.

EUR/USD futures traders are on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure, and managed funds are increasing their short exposure to gold and crude oil.

Gold is contemplating a thrust towards record highs after logging the highest close on record last Friday. With little visible technical resistance evident on the charts, whether it gets there will likely come down to what happens with the US dollar and bond yields over the coming days.

Look no further than relative central bank interest rate expectations if you’re wondering what’s driving USD/JPY right now. The pair is moving in lockstep with US two-year Treasury note yields, running with a positive correlation of 0.96 on the daily over the past month.

US two-year Treasury yields are at risk of breaking back into the higher range they traded in prior to the Federal Reserve’s policy pivot last year, creating opportunities in markets sensitive to shifts in US rate expectations such as Australia’s ASX 200, USD/JPY and gold.

Gold held up well last week despite rising US yields, assisted in part by continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East. But in week with key inflation reports in the United States and United Kingdom, there are plenty of catalysts looming on the horizon that could shake gold from its slumber.

A blowout payrolls report, another pushback from Jerome Powell against excessive rate cut bets and a surprise reacceleration in US service sector activity has seen the short end of the US Treasury curve come roaring back to life with yields surging higher.

Gold’s outlook looks set to be dictated by geopolitical tensions along with the US rate outlook. Having broken its downtrend, the directional risks appear skewed to the upside near-term, putting a retest of the highs hit last year on the radar.

Gold’s inverse relationship with US real bond yields weakened late last year as geopolitical tensions ramped up, delivering less upside than what would have typically occurred in the past, according to Morgan Stanley.

Today’s payroll data reiterated the run of strong labor market data with wages growing at 4% a key concern for the Fed. Futures markets reduced the probability of early rate cuts, but traders made few changes to their bullish stance on equities, bonds, gold or the dollar.

The Dow Jones has quickly shaken off yesterday’s late losses is challenging record highs despite the comedown of the Fed minutes yesterday. The market remains optimistic over the state of the US economy, supported by today’s various jobs sector data releases; the flip-side is that too much strength could slow the pace of interest rate cuts with the Fed “likely at or near its peak rates” according to December policy meeting minutes yesterday. The Bitcoin rally will be tested pretty soon, as the SEC is intended to approve (or not) Bitcoin ETFs.