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AUD/USD weekly outlook: Can seasonality save the Aussie?

AUD/USD has done a poor job of tracking its seasonality overall this year so far. And given it’s taking its directional cue from China while any pullback on the USD may be limited, I'm not hanging my hat on a particularly strong December for AUD/USD.

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USD/JPY forecast: Payrolls pivotal for bullish bond breakout, yen rally longevity

A bullish breakout in US bonds has sent USD/JPY tumbling below 150, with payrolls now poised to decide whether the yen’s surge gains momentum or fizzles out. Could this be the pivotal moment for bond markets and the Fed's rate path?

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USD/JPY: Inflation surprise fuels yen surge, 200DMA break boosts downside risks

USD/JPY is tumbling, breaking through its 200-day moving average after Tokyo’s inflation data shocked to the upside. With US Treasury yields losing steam and thin markets amplifying moves, traders are eyeing a deeper downside flush. Could the yen’s resurgence have more room to run?

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November 29, 2024 01:55 AM

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The stats are working against bitcoin bulls today

Bitcoin futures followed their seasonal tendency to rally on Thanksgiving Day. And pattern is to hold true today, it could be set for a down day as we veer into the weekend.

EUR/USD: Fading French political turmoil with the White Knight on standby

French political drama is generating noise again, but don’t be fooled; it's the relative outlook for growth and inflation either side of the Atlantic that’s really moving EUR/USD. With the ECB ready to step in, perpetual French chaos is just a sideshow for the euro.

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November 28, 2024 10:58 PM

ASX hits record high in thin trade, but double top clouds the outlook

ASX 200 futures (SPI 200) were allowed to print a fresh record high on a daily-close basis. Yet 8500 remains a clear level of resistance, and one which prompted a potential bearish reversal pattern.

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November 28, 2024 10:32 PM
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NZD/USD shifting from US rates play to trade war proxy?

NZD/USD is gaining momentum, with US rates diminishing as the dominant driver. With trade war risks back on the radar, the Kiwi’s trajectory could hinge on global sentiment. Can it weather the turbulence?

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November 28, 2024 01:38 AM
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USD/JPY crumbles as Treasury futures surge: key signals to watch

After USD/JPY’s dramatic plunge, the focus shifts to what’s next. Is this just the beginning of further downside, or could a rally toward the 200-day moving average provide fresh opportunities for shorts? Here's what signals from US Treasuries reveal on near-term directional risks.

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November 27, 2024 10:31 PM
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With Wall Street bucking its Thanksgiving trend, the ASX could struggle

Wall Street indices took the relatively rare step of ignoring its tendency to rally ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, and price action suggests there could be deeper pullback. Which may not bode so well for ASX 200 bulls who may be sleeping behind their wheel around a record high.

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RBNZ cuts 50bps, signals higher neutral estimate; NZD/USD surges as rate cut slowdown looms

The RBNZ took the safe option in delivering a 50bps cut, but hawkish signals have traders buzzing. Can NZD/USD sustain its breakout momentum, or will the US dollar reclaim control?

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November 27, 2024 02:03 AM
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USD/JPY: Bearish break signals deeper slide as US yields retreat

USD/JPY bulls are on the back foot as US bond yields retreat, triggering a key technical break. With Scott Bessent’s bold fiscal plan easing fears and Fed rate cut bets fading, the pair now skews firmly to the downside.

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November 26, 2024 10:21 PM
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NZD/USD, AUD/NZD: RBNZ to mull dovish cut in face of tariffs, Trump 2.0

The consensus is 50bp, market pricing leans towards 75bp. Whatever the RBNZ decide to do today, it comes down to whether they will signal further cuts, as to whether NZD/USD continues to depreciate or bounce on a "sell the rumour, buy the fact" reaction.

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Trump tariff threat roils markets: USD surges, CAD, AUD, NZD sink

Trump’s tariff threats send shockwaves through markets, driving the USD higher as trade-reliant currencies plunge. USD/CAD breaks to pandemic highs, while AUD and NZD reel from fears of escalating protectionism.

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November 26, 2024 12:42 AM
Gold trading

Yields, gold slump on Trump Treasury pick, ceasefire deal

It's not every day you see gold plunge alongside yields. But that is what Monday served on reports of a potential ceasefire in Gaza and Trump's picking a relatively 'safe pair of hands' for the US Treasury Secretary role. With a prominent swing high on gold, I suspect it could be headed much lower from here.

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EUR/USD: Bessent bounce underpinned by bullish bond breakout

Scott Bessent’s treasury secretary nomination is already impacting markets, sending bond yields lower and sparking a sharp rebound in EUR/USD. But with yield spreads still heavily in favour of the US, the durability of the move faces questions.

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November 25, 2024 03:13 AM
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AUD/USD weekly outlook: With speculative vols rising, a low may have been seen

AUD/USD managed to recoup some of its post-US-election losses last week. And given it held up against the might USD strength while futures data shows volumes rising for the first week in seven, I suspect an important swing low has been seen.

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USD/CHF: Path higher hits roadblock as Bessent's nomination sends bonds bid

Scott Bessent’s nomination as US treasury secretary has jolted markets in Asia, sending bond yields lower and stirring fresh volatility in USD/CHF. With Swiss policymakers hinting at bold moves and rate differentials still in the driver’s seat, is the pair’s uptrend primed to extend, or is a reversal brewing?

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November 25, 2024 12:06 AM

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USD/JPY Forecast: Can the bull run survive as Fed rate rethink caps long bond yields?

USD/JPY's rally faces a critical test as diminishing Fed rate bets threaten to stall the relentless rise in US bond yields. With key data and FOMC minutes on tap, could this be the week the bulls lose their grip?

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RBNZ preview: Will Orr's 'Shock and Awe' return as key rates decision looms?

New Zealand’s economy is crawling despite aggressive rate cuts, leaving the RBNZ staring down a crucial decision: play it safe or unleash Adrian Orr’s hallmark “shock and awe” with a bold move next week. Could a 75bp cut be the surprise markets aren’t ready for?

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November 22, 2024 03:54 AM
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Market Wrap: Bitcoin Nears $100K, Gold and Crude Oil Stay Bullish

Welcome to Friday! Bitcoin inches closer to $100K, with spot and futures markets hitting record highs. Gold breaks above its 50DMA, bolstering bullish picture, while crude oil builds momentum despite lighter volumes. ASX 200 futures remain a buy-on-dips play, edging closer to record highs. EUR/USD stays under pressure, hitting fresh 2024 lows.

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Silver, copper teetering: Bearish breakouts looming?

Can silver and copper hold their ground, or are sharper declines on the horizon? The price action suggests a resumption of the bearish trend could be in the cards.

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November 21, 2024 02:08 AM
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD slide as rising US yields take control

While headlines were fixated on Nvidia and the origin of missiles, the real story for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on Wednesday was US yield movements, driving the latest twists in forex markets.

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November 20, 2024 10:05 PM
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USD regains bullish stride, EUR/USD and USD/JPY look set to converge

The USD index defied the 3-day retracement that dared to defy its bullish trend and now appears on the cusp of a breakout. While this could signify EUR/USD dropping below 105, it may also equate to a bullish breakout on USD/JPY.