Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Bears Go for the Break

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels

• USD/CHF poised to mark weekly reversal off 2025 high- attempting to break September uptrend
• USD/CHF risk for larger correction ahead- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap
• Resistance 9147, 9225/48 (key), 9319- Support 8958, 8861/85 (key), 8758

The USD/CHF is attempting to break below a multi-month uptrend with a weekly reversal off the yearly high now underway. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart into February open with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap.  

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that the, “USD/CHF rally is approaching initial resistance just higher- risk for possible price inflection. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the lower parallel IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 9144 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance…”

The rally registered an intraweek high at 9201 the following week before exhausting with USD/CHF attempting to break the lower parallel of the September pitchfork this week. Risk for a deeper set-back here IF this break holds into the weekly close.  

Initial weekly support rests with the November high at 8958 and is backed closely by the 52-week moving average / 38.2% retracement of the September rally at 8861/85. A break / close below this threshold would suggest a more significant high was registered last month / a larger reversal is underway with subsequent support objectives seen at the 2021 low near 8758 and the 61.8% retracement at 8690.

Weekly resistance is eyed with the 2024 high-close / January high-week close at 9147/50 with critical resistance steady at 9225/48- a region defined by the 2024 swing high, the 2023 yearly open, and the 50% retracement of the 2022 decline. Breach/ close above this pivot zone is needed to mark uptrend resumption with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 100% extension of the September advance at 9319 and the 61.8% retracement at 9455- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: USD/CHF is threatening a break of the September uptrend and leaves the bulls on the defensive early in the month. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 9147 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a break below 8957 needed to fuel the next leg of the correction. Ultimately, we are on the lookout for a possible exhaustion low in the weeks ahead.

Keep in mind we are in the early throws of the February opening-range with the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex