S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises lifted by Nvidia & weaker jobless claims

US futures

Dow future 0.06% at 38,805

S&P futures 0.18% at 5500

Nasdaq futures 0.23% at 19972

In Europe

FTSE 0.48% at 8236

Dax 0.20% at 18124

Nvidia lifts chips stocks & the index higher

Jobless claims were weaker than expected

The breadth of the rally to ATH’s is narrow

Oil holds steady ahead of EIA inventory data

Nvidia just keeps on rising

U.S. stocks are set for a stronger open as traders return from the Juneteenth public holiday, digest softer-than-expected US jobless claims, and Nvidia extends its impressive rally. The Dow Jones is lagging its peers amid a lack of exposure to tech stocks.

Once again, Nvidia has been the standout performer in recent sessions, leading chip stocks higher. However, there are rising concerns over the rally's lack of breadth.

Meanwhile, jobless claims came in weaker than expected at 238k, down from the nine-month high of two 42k in the previous session but ahead of the 235k forecast. The softer jobless claims data is another sign that the U.S. economy is starting to slow. Meanwhile, continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, also ticked higher to 1.82 million.

Data comes after retail sales earlier in the week, which were also softer than expected and raised expectations that the Federal Reserve could move to cut interest rates sooner rather than later.

Attention now turns to comments from Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari for further clues about when the Fed may start to cut rates. After the closing bell, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are expected to speak.

Corporate news

Nvidia is set to open over 3% higher, adding to gains in the previous session. The chipmaker became the most valuable company in the world, with a market cap of $3.3 trillion, overtaking Microsoft.

Accenture is set to open over 7% higher after the IT services provider forecasts annual revenue growth ahead of expectations. The growing use of AI offsets sluggish growth in enterprise spending.

Dell is set to climb 3% on the open. Super Micro Computer will also open over 4.5% higher after Elon Musk posted on social media that these companies would provide server racks for the computer supercomputer his X AI startup is building.

S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis.

The S&P 500 has risen to a fresh ATH at 5500, and while the RSI remains in overbought territory, this doesn’t appear to be deterring the bulls. The next logical level is 5550, ahead of 5600. Immediate support is at 5400, ahead of 5350, the May high.

FX markets – USD rises, GBP/USD falls

The USD is rising, tracking treasury yields higher despite the weaker-than-expected jobless claims data. Fed speakers are in focus for further clues about when the Fed could cut rates.

EUR/USD is falling after the ECB’s economic bulletin pointed to growth risks being neutral and the central bank seeing inflation trending lower.

GBP/USD is falling after the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, a 16-year high, as expected, but signaled that it could cut rates as soon as the August meeting. The announcement comes after UK inflation data cooled to 2%, the BoE’s target level, but service sector inflation was hotter than expected. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak shortly.

Oil holds steady ahead of EIA data

Oil prices are hovering around 7-week highs ahead of US inventory data.

Prices remain supported around current levels amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Yesterday, oil prices rose on news that Israeli tanks were heading into Gaza, raising concerns over supply. However, gains are being limited by expectations of an inventory build.

US EIA inventory data is due later today. It follows API data showing a build of 2.264 million barrels in the week ending June 14. Gasoline inventories fell.

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.