S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises after Nvidia beats & US Q4 GDP data

US futures

Dow future -0.05% at 43437

S&P futures 0.44% at 5983

Nasdaq futures 0.80% at 21300

In Europe

FTSE 0.10% at 8736

Dax  -1% at 22557

• Stocks are mixed after Trump’s trade announcement
• US Q4 GDP was revised higher to 2.4%, but jobless claims also rose
• Nvidia rises after beating forecasts
• Oil rises as Trump cancels Chevron’s Venezuela licence

Nvidia beats forecasts, Trump said tariffs will go ahead

US stocks are heading for a mixed start, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 rising after Nvidia’s upbeat numbers. However, the Dow Jones has fallen into the red after President Trump said that Canada and Mexico trade tariffs will go ahead as planned and further tariffs would be placed on China.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump proposed tariffs of 25% on Mexican and Canadian goods will start on March 4th. An additional 10% tariff on China would be added on top of the 10% levy already in place. His comments come after he warned that trade tariffs on Europe are also coming.

Besides Trump's tariff declaration, the market is also weighing up stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP growth. Data showed the US economy grew at a faster clip of 2.4% annualised in the final three months of last year, up from 2.3%.

Meanwhile, jobless claims were also higher than expected, which could weigh on sentiment, adding to recent concerns over softening in the US economy since the start of the year. Jobless claims rose to 242,000, up 22,000 from the previous week's revised level of 225,000.

Recent U.S. data, including softer-than-expected consumer confidence and disappointing retail sales numbers, point to deteriorating consumer sentiment rattling stocks and raising concerns over the health of the US economy. Attention will now turn to US core PCE tomorrow for further clues on the Fed's next steps..

Corporate news

Nvidia is rising after stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue and higher-than-anticipated current quarter sales production, which overshadowed narrowing profit margins.

Revenue rose 78% to 39.33 billion, ahead of the 38.05 billion forecast, whilst earning per share rose to $0.89, above the $0.85 expected. The AI chip maker set expects 43 billion in Q1 revenue ±2%. This was ahead of forecasts, although it implies a year-to-year growth of 65%, which is down considerably from the 260% annual growth in the same period a year earlier.

Gross margins were 73% down 3 points on an annual basis due to new data centre products that were more complicated than expensive.

This calendar year, the focus will be on how quickly Nvidia can ship its next-generation AI processor, Blackwell. CEO Jensen Huang has said that demand for Blackwell is amazing, and it's the fastest product ramp-up in history.

They plunged 8% after the e-commerce giant released weaker-than-expected revenue guidance for Q1, overshadowing a Q4 earnings beat.

Bath and Body Works is falling premarket after the retailer issued a below-consensus forecast for Q1 earnings.

Salesforce is falling after the software group unveiled revenue guidance that was below analysts' estimates.

S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis.

The S&P 500 continues to trade in a holding pattern dating back to the start of the year. The price holds above the 100 SMA but remains capped by the 50 SMA. Sellers will need to break below the 100 SMA at 5960 and the 5914 February low to create a lower low and extend the bearish trend. Meanwhile, a recovery above the 50 SMA at 6000  could open the door to 6100, 6130 and fresh record highs.

FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls

The USD is rising after mixed data: stronger than expected Q4 GDP but weaker jobless claims. Attention now turns to Trump’s speech.

EUR/USD is falling amid a stronger USD and after Trump’s trade tariff threat. Trump reiterated his threat of 25% tariffs, particularly on the automobile industry. The ECB minutes revealed that policymakers saw a clear case for a rate but refrained from giving guidance. The ECB are expected to cut rates next week.

GBP/USD is falling amid a stronger U.S. dollar and a quiet UK economic calendar. UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer is visiting Washington to meet with President Trump. Security and Ukraine are likely on the agenda. Given the small US—UK trade deficit, the UK could escape trade tariffs.

Oil rises as Trump cancels Chevron’s Venezuelan licence

Oil prices are rising after two days of losses, on supply concerns after President Trump cancelled Chevron's Venezuelan licence.

This means that Chevron will no longer be able to export Venezuelan crude oil, reducing Venezuelan production. Chevron exports around 240,000 barrels of crude oil per day from its Venezuelan operations.

Meanwhile, any price gains could be capped by optimism about a Russian-Ukrainian peace deal. Trump said that Ukrainian president Zelensky would visit Washington on Friday to sign an agreement on rare earth minerals, although the success of the talks depends on continued US aid. Any sense that a peace deal could be agreed upon may mean that Russian sanctions are lifted.