S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises after in line inflation & Apple earnings

US futures

Dow future 0.28% at 45004

S&P futures 0.44% at 6097

Nasdaq futures 0.77% at 21663

In Europe

FTSE 0.43% at 8687

Dax 0.29% at 21793

US core PCE rose 0.2% MoM as expected
Trump warns of trade tariffs on Canada,
Apple rises after beating earnings & revenue forecasts
Oil falls across the week

Core PCE rises 0.2% MoM, 2.8% YoY

US stock markets are heading higher after the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation brought no nasty surprises and remained muted in December, supporting further reductions in interest rates.

The core PCE index rose 0.2% from November and 2.8% year on year. On a 3-month annualised basis, which is considered a more accurate picture, the core PCE gauged rose 2.2%, marking the smallest increase since July.

The data could help ease concerns about a revival in inflation after a period of acceleration in recent months.

The data comes after the US GDP was weaker than expected and following the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday, in which Fed chair Jerome Powell said he needed to see more progress towards the 2% target before resuming rate cuts.

Elsewhere, the markets are taking Trump's trade tariffs in stride after threats that they could be applied as of tomorrow. Yesterday, President Trump said the US would impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada on February 1. He also warned that 10% trade tariffs could be added to China this weekend.

Despite this week's volatility, all three major indices are on track for monthly gains S&P 500 less than 1% away from its all-time high reached last week.

Corporate news

Apple has jumped 4% after a rise in service revenue overshadows weaker iPhone sales figures. Apple posted EPS of $2.40 ahead of the $2.35 estimated and revenue of $124.30 billion versus the $124.12 billion forecast. iPhone revenue was slightly below target at $69.14 billion, and services revenue was ahead of expectations at $26.34 billion. Apple said it expected growth in the March quarter of low to mid-single digits on an annual basis, surprising expectation and pointing to some momentum in demand.

Exxon Mobil is set to open modestly higher after the oil giant beat estimates for Q4 profits. Higher oil and gas production offset lower prices and weaker refining margins.

Chevron is set to open over 1.5% lower after the oil major posted weaker-than-expected Q4 income owing to softer US fuel demand and weaker margins.

S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis.

The S&P 500 is extending its recovery from Monday's low of 5915, pushing towards the record high of 6130 for each last week. The RSI above 50 and the price maintaining above the 50SMA keeps buyers optimistic about further gains. A rise above 6130 brings 6150 and 6200 into focus. The 50SMA offered support at 6000, also the psychological level, and below here, 59 15 comes into play.

FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls

USD is rising and on track to gain 0.7% across the week, recovering from two weeks of declines. The dollar is supported by safe-haven flows following Trump's tariff announcements and the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance at its policy meeting this week.

EUR/USD is falling after German inflation cooled more than expected, at -0.2% month-over-month in December, down from 0.5% in November. German retail sales also declined by -1.6% month-over-month in December. Data released yesterday indicated that the German economy contracted by 0.2% in the final quarter of last year. This data supports the view that the ECB will continue to cut rates in 2025.

USD/CAD hovers near a multi-year high after rising 0.9% this week. The loonie is under pressure due to expectations that Trump will impose trade tariffs on Canadian imports starting tomorrow.

Oil falls across the week

Oil prices are holding around $73 a barrel but are set to book declines of over 2% for the week after falling 4% in the previous week.

Oil prices are under pressure as Donald Trump is poised to follow through on his threat to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada this weekend. These two countries are the largest crude oil exporters to the U.S., but it remains unclear if crude oil will be included in the tariffs.

Looking ahead, attention will also turn to the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for February 3rd, where the group will discuss Trump's plans to increase U.S. oil production and his demands on OPEC+ to increase output.

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.