S&P500 Forecast: SPX flat after jobs data & ahead of Alphabet earnings

US futures

Dow future -0.09% at 42326

S&P futures 0.1% at 5831

Nasdaq futures 0.48% at 20443

In Europe

FTSE -0.70% at 8235

Dax 0.14% at 19471

Stocks are steady, with data & earnings in focus
JOLTS job openings fell by more than expected
Alphabet reports after the close
Oil rises after falling 6% yesterday

Alphabet earnings & falling job openings

U.S. stocks are pointing to a mixed open amid a softer JOLTs job openings report and as more earnings continue to roll in.

JOLTS job openings data revealed that the number of job openings stood at 7.44 million, falling short of the expected 7.98 million.

The previous figure was also downwardly revised from 8.1 million to 7.86 million. This downward trend in job vacancies points to a potential slowdown in the labour market, which could have further implications for the health of the US economy.

The data comes ahead of more jobs figures this week, with ADP payrolls and US nonfarm payrolls in focus on Friday. The data could raise concerns about the health of the labour market and the likelihood of a soft landing for the US economy.

U.S. Treasury yields are also rising, with the 10-year yield reaching a three-month high. This boosted recent strong US data, raising questions about Fed rate cuts and after a weak government auction pointed to soft demand ahead of next week's U.S. presidential election.

The market is increasingly pricing in a Donald Trump victory in next week's elections; Trump is expected to implement inflationary policies that support the US dollar but keep stocks under pressure.

There are plenty of data points that will be released this week, including the jobs data, GDP figures, and core PCE. Strong data could see expectations for a November rate cut fall. Goldilocks data will be important to keep rate cut expectations stable.

Corporate news

Alphabet is due to report after the clothes and is expected to show its lowest revenue growth in four quarters. Expectations are for EPS of $1.85 on revenue of $86.4 billion. The share price trades up 22% YTD, underperforming some of its Magnificent Seven peers.

Ford fell 9% after the automaker lowered its full-year guidance even as earnings and revenue beat forecasts. EPS was $0.49c, and revenue came in at $43.07 billion. Ford blamed supply disruptions and warranty costs amid a global price war.

PayPal is fooling after the digital payment giant posted Q3 earnings that beat forecasts, but revenue fell short of expectations.

S&P500 forecast – technical analysis.

The S&P500 trades above its multi-month rising trendline but has eased back from record highs of 5882. Buyers will look to rise above 5882 to extend gains towards 5900. Sellers will need to break below 5800, last week’s low, to negate the near-term uptrend. Below 5660, the October low comes into focus.

FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls

The USD is rising on expectations that Trump will win the election. next, we can implement inflationary policies, which means the Federal Reserve could adopt A more gradual pace of two rate cuts. As well as election focus there is plenty of economic data over the coming days.

EUR/USD is falling amid a stronger USD and on signs that consumer confidence is starting to improve in Germany. GfK German consumer confidence improved to -18.3, up from -21 and ahead of forecasts to -20.5. The judge German government still forecasts a 0.2% contraction this year.

GBP/USD is unchanged below 1.30 in cautious trade ahead of tomorrow's UK Budget. Today, BRC data showed that shop prices fell -0.8% YoY in September, down from -0.6%, pointing to ongoing deflationary pressures. This helps pave the way for more BoE rate cuts.

Oil rises after yesterday's 6% drop.

Oil prices are rising modestly after dropping 6% in the previous session. Oil is finding support in US plans to buy oil for its strategic petroleum reserve, although wider concerns about future demand growth could limit the upside.

Noel is showing some signs of recovery after the fading risk premium sent oil prices 6% lower yesterday. Signs that tensions in the Middle East could be de-escalating have helped ease concerns over any supply disruption in the region.

Instead, the focus is on news that the US says it was taking to buy up to 3,000,000 barrels of oil for SPR for delivery through May next year.

Meanwhile, the outlook for demand, particularly in China, is in question despite the recent Chinese stimulus announcement.

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.