S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises modestly as the market asses Trump's trade outlook
US futures
Dow future -0.07% at 43450
S&P futures 0.09% at 6023
Nasdaq futures 0.05% at 21560
In Europe
FTSE 0.06% at 8526
Dax 0.04% at 21007
- President Trump’s trade comments drive sentiment
- Optimism after no universal trade tariffs announced
- Netflix earnings in focus after the close
- Oil falls on Trump's increased oil output plans
US stocks rise amid relief over no immediate universal trade tariffs
U.S. stocks are rising modestly ahead of the open as investors assess Donald Trump's executive orders while awaiting his first moves on trade policy.
The US market was closed yesterday for Martin Luther King Day. However, futures are rising amid relief in the market from a slightly more measured inauguration speech. President Trump did not lay out concrete plans for universal tariffs, bringing initial relief. He has since said that he is considering imposing trade tariff on Canada and Mexico as soon as February 1.
While Trump said he was planning 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada due to their border policies he didn't specify any plans for tariffs with China. This is being interpreted as a positive for the market. Investors are particularly sensitive to trade tariff and universal trade tariff threats given their likely inflationary effect, which could prevent the Fed from cutting rates at the pace hoped for.
In his speech, President Trump labeled his return to the White House as the start of a period of growth and success for the country, outlining his intentions to make America great. The more domestically focused Russell 2000 stands to benefit from this vision.
Asset prices in 2025 will likely be driven by Trump's policies. Uncertainty and volatility are likely to persist.
Corporate news
US-listed shares in Chinese companies jumped on relief that China has initially avoided harsh trade tariffs. Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu are heading higher pre-open.
Automobile makers General Motors and Ford, which have supply chains spread across the US, rose 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively, ahead of the open. Tesla is also trading 2% higher
Apple has slumped after Jefferies slashed their rating of the iPhone manufacturer to underperform from hold after independent research found sales in China fell 18.2% in the December quarter
Netflix will be in focus as the streaming giant is set to report after the close. Expectations are for EPS of $4.21 and revenue of $10.11. Subscription growth could double Q3 at around 11 million owing to strong content releases and the success of advertising tiers. This will be the last quarter that subscriber numbers are released.
S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis.
The S&P 500 continues to extend its recovery from 5770 January low and tests the 6000-6050 resistance zone. A rise above here opens the door to 6100 and fresh record highs. Failure to retake this resistance zone could see the price retest the 50 SMA at 5970. A break below here exposes the 100 SMA and the 5850 support zone.
FX markets – USD rises, GBP/USD falls
The USD is rebounding after yesterday's losses as the market weighs up Donald Trump's immediate actions at his inauguration. While the USD initially fell after Trump stopped short of trade tariff plans in his speech, comments made later have revived some trade tariff concerns, lifting the USD.
EUR/USD is edging lower after weaker-than-expected German-EW economic sentiment and risk aversion following Trump's mixed messages regarding tariff threats.
GBP/USD is falling after soft UK jobs data. Unemployment unexpectedly ticked higher to 4.4%, while payroll numbers plunged by 47k in December, the largest fall since November 2020. Vacancies also fell for the 30th straight month. The data points to a soft labour market even as wage growth accelerated to 5.6%, although this was mainly due to a base effect.
Oil falls after Trump plans to increase oil production
Oil prices are falling on Tuesday extending losses from yesterday after Trump's inauguration speech where he pledged to increase US oil and gas production.
Trump withdrew from the Paris agreement and overturned Biden's ban on offshore oil and gas drilling in specific areas on the US continental shelf to encourage increased production.
The prospect of increased supply has pushed oil prices lower.
Separately, Trump's decision to refrain from imposing trade tariffs on China at the start of his second term is a positive and could benefit both the Chinese economy and the oil demand forecast, limiting losses.
Meanwhile, the stronger U.S. dollar could also pull oil prices lower, making oil more expensive for buyers of other currencies.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.
ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.
City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.
The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.
The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
© City Index 2025