S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rebounds after last week's losses

US futures

Dow future 0.61% at 43678

S&P futures 0.54% at 6045

Nasdaq futures 0.45% at 21715

In Europe

FTSE -0.10% at 8653

Dax  0.96% at 22473

• US stocks rise after weak data spurred losses last week
• Trump will speak later today
• Core PCE and Nvidia earnings are in focus this week
• Oil steadies after 5-weeks of losses

Stocks recover ahead of Trump’s speech

US stocks are heading for a stronger start, rebounding from last week's losses as investors look ahead to Trump's speech later today and Nvidia's earnings later in the week.

US indices fell sharply on Friday and posted weekly losses weighed down by data showing a fall in U.S. business activity to a 17-month low. The soft data signaled that both businesses and consumers were increasingly concerned about Trump's administration's policies. Data also shows that U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a 15-month low, and inflation expectations surged as households fretted over the potential impact of Trump's trade tariffs.

Today, the US economic calendar is quiet. This week's main focus will be on Friday's core PCE index for January, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for inflation.

On Wednesday, Nvidia will also report after the close. The firm is a bellwether for enthusiasm towards AI and has helped to power a sharp rise in the stock market over the past 12 months  

Corporate news

Berkshire Hathaway posted a third straight record high in full-year profits and lifted its cash stake to $334.2 billion.

Apple is inching lower after the iPhone manufacturer announced it would hire 20,000 new workers and produce AI servers in the US.

Alibaba is rising after announcing plans to invest $52.4 billion over the next three years to boost its cloud computing and AI infrastructure, marking its largest tech investment to date

S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis.

The S&P 500 rose to a record high of 6150 last week, before dropping sharply lower. The price found support on the 50 SMA and has rebounded higher. Buyers will look to extend the recovery towards 6150 and fresh record highs. Sellers would need to take out the 50 SMA at 6000 to extend losses towards 5950, the 100 SMA, and 5915, the February low.

FX markets – USD falls, EUR/USD rises

The USD is struggling to recover from a two-month low after weak data at the end of last week. This week’s core PCE data could be key to the USD's next move.

EUR/USD is rising as investors cheer the German election results, which saw the CPD win with Friedrich Merz set to become the new Chancellor. Negotiations will begin to form a coalition, most likely with the SPU. This coalition is unlikely to deliver significant changes for the German economy other than a short-lived positive impact of some tax cuts and other small reforms. Data today highlighted the weakness in the German economy. The Ifo business climate index came in below expectations of 85.8, just 85.2, in February.

GBP/USD is holding onto last week’s gains, supported by Friday’s stronger-than-expected retail sales and services PMI. Today, the UK economic calendar is quiet. Attention will be on BoE speakers Lombrdelli, Ramsden, and Dhingra.

Oil steadies after 5 weeks of losses

Oil prices are steadying after 5 weeks of losses as investors await clarity on talks to end the war in Ukraine.

Attention is firmly focused on efforts to end Russia's war on Ukraine, which ended its fourth year this week.

Trump has started bilateral talks with Russia without inviting either Ukraine or the European Union to the table. While U.S. and EU sanctions on Russian oil exports have disrupted the oil supply, an end to the war in Ukraine may result in an increase in Russian supplies to the market. However, this may also come as OPEC+ increases its production output.

The decrease in geopolitical risk on the prospect of increased supply has weighed on oil prices. Developments surrounding Russia and Ukraine will be watched closely and could influence oil prices near term.

Meanwhile, an increase in supply from Iraq is limiting gains.