sp 500 daily outlook fri 01 apr 2016 mixed elements watch the 205250 support 1804242016

(Click to enlarge charts)

What happened yesterday/earlier

The U.S. SP 500 Index (proxy for the S&P 500 futures) has started to inch lower from 30 March 2016 high of 2073 (the run up triggered by Fed chairwomen Yellen’s dovish speech on future policy interest rate hikes) but still remains above the 2052/50 short-term pivotal support.

Please click on this link for a recap on our previous short-term daily outlook/strategy.

Today key economic data releases for U.S. will as follow:

1) Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate for Mar @1230 GMT

2) ISM Manufacturing PMI for Mar @1400 GMT

Key elements

The Index is now testing the lower limit of the bearish “Ascending Wedge” configuration at 2052/50 with indicates an exhaustion of the recent up move that was triggered by Fed chairwomen Yellen’s dovish speech on future policy interest rate hikes.
The daily (medium-term) RSI oscillator continues to show signs of upside exhaustion as it has inched lower from the overbought region after the prior bearish divergence signal.
Other major stock indices (Nikkei 225, the weakest), DAX and Hang Seng have all shaped their expected decline (please refer to today’s short-term daily strategy on these indices). Therefore based on intermarket analysis, it will be prudent not to have a bullish bias in the short-term on the U.S. S&P 500.

Key levels (1 to 3 days)

Resistances: 2081 & 2100

Next support: 2052/50 & 2020

Conclusion

After taking into account on the latest bearish price movement of other major stock indices, the probability for a last push up towards 2081 has been reduced. Thus, we have decided to turn neutral on the U.S. SP 500 Index between 2052/50 and 2081 with a bearish bias.

Only a break below 2052/50 is likely to trigger a potential bearish breakdown from the “Ascending Wedge” to target the next support at 2020 (the swing lows area of 17/24 March 2016) in the first step.

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