Oil Wipes Out 2025 Gains, Bitcoin Holds Above $100,000

Article Outline

Key Events: Chinese PMIs, trade wars, SEC Crypto Regulations, FOMC
Technical Analysis: Crude Oil and Bitcoin 3-Day and Weekly Time Frames

Chinese PMI’s Disappoint, Oil Rebounds From 72 Support

Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs fell short of expectations on Monday, with the manufacturing PMI dropping to a five-month low of 49.1, signaling contraction. Following a brief rebound from the $80 level, driven by factors such as Trump’s oil price cut claims and the dissipation of short-term bullish drivers, crude oil wiped out nearly all of its 2025 gains, sliding back to the $72 price zone.

Oil is currently trading above a volatile and uncertain range, with potential to gravitate toward its key four-year support zone between $64 and $68 if the $72 level is breached. This range will determine oil’s trajectory: either a steep decline toward $55 or a neutral hold.

Crypto Regulations

The U.S. is implementing a new crypto regulatory framework designed to foster financial innovation while reducing speculative risks. The SEC recently announced the establishment of a Crypto Task Force with key objectives, including:

Developing clear registration pathways for crypto assets
Crafting sensible disclosure frameworks
Clarifying when crypto tokens qualify as securities
Ensuring judicious deployment of enforcement resources (Source: Forbes)

This evolving regulatory framework aims to create a sustainable environment for crypto investments, offering long-term stability and reducing market speculation. As these regulations take hold, sharp spikes in crypto volatility may gradually return to more stable levels.

Key market-moving events this week include escalating US-China trade war tensions, fueled by intensifying AI rivalry; Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with markets closely watching for signals amid inflation risks under the Trump presidency; and a series of mega-cap earnings reports that could steer broader market sentiment.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

Crude Oil Outlook: 3-Day Time Frame

Source: Tradingview

After declining from the $80 highs, crude oil rebounded from the $72 zone, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the trading range observed between October and December 2024.

Support Levels: A break below $72 could trigger further declines toward $70, $68, and the critical $64 support zone. If the $64 support fails, oil could plunge further, targeting $55 and $49.

Resistance Levels: Although bearish momentum dominates, a break back above $78 and $80 could signal recovery, extending gains to $84 and $89.

Bitcoin Outlook: Weekly Time Frame

Source: Tradingview

Bitcoin’s breakout to the $100,000 mark has brought it into an expanding consolidation pattern, aligning with a long-term trendline connecting the highs of 2021. This pattern suggests two possible outcomes:

1. Bullish Continuation: A firm close above $112,000 could confirm the continuation of Bitcoin's rally. Key levels include $128,000 and $147,000, aligning with the 1.618 and 2.0 Fibonacci extensions derived from the trend between the September 2023 low ($25,000), the March 2024 high ($73,800), and the August 2024 low ($49,500).

2. Bearish Reversal: Failure to break above $112,000 could result in a potential double-top reversal. A break below $84,000 would signal further downside risk, with targets at $74,000, $63,000, and $51,000.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on Rh_waves

You Tube: Commodities and Forex Trading with Razan Hilal, CMT

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.