Oil forecast: WTI steadies for now, OPEC+ postpones meeting

Oil steadies after 3-days of losses
Easing tensions in the Middle East reduced the risk premium
OPEC+ postpones Dec 1st meeting
Oil trades in holding pattern

Oil prices held steady on Thursday, ending three days of losses, after OPEC+ announced that it had delayed its upcoming meeting to the following week.

Crude oil fell at the start of the week after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire deal. While this removes some of the risk premium from oil, reflected by the 3.5% decline on Monday, Israel is keeping up its offensive in Gaza, which means stability in the Middle East remains elusive.

The market is now turning its attention to the OPEC+ meeting, which had originally been planned for December 1st but has now been postponed. The group is expected to push back plans to start unwinding production cuts amid concerns over weaker demand and high supply from non-OPEC countries. Such a move could help steady oil prices. However, the IEA cut its oil price forecast for 2025, regardless of whether OPEC unwinds output cuts.

China has been a key area of concern for OPEC as the world's largest oil importer struggles with a sluggish economy and weak economic outlook despite recent stimulus measures.

Furthermore, China's economic outlook is increasingly uncertain amid expectations that Trump will impose trade tariffs when he takes office in January. The Chinese economy is more fragile than it was under the first Trump administration, so it will be less resilient to tariffs. Weaker growth in China could hurt the demand outlook for oil.

On the data front, U.S. oil inventories fell, but gasoline stockpiles rose. EIA government data showed oil inventories shrank by 1.8 million barrels in the week ending November 22nd; however, gasoline inventories increased by 3.3 million barrels.

Looking ahead trading volumes are likely to remain low as the US markets return for half a day tomorrow.

Where next for oil prices?

Oil prices continue to trade within a familiar channel, capped on the upside by 71.50-72.50 resistance and by 67.50 on the downside. The RSI is neutral.

For a break-out trade, buyers will look to rise above 71.50 to 72.50 to create a higher high and bring the 75.00 round number into focus.

Sellers will look to break out below 67.50 to bring 65.25, the September low, into focus.

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.