Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ muted after jobs data

US futures

Dow future 0.44% at 44,949

S&P futures 0.01% at 6084

Nasdaq futures 0.4% at 21478

In Europe

FTSE -0.0% at 8335

Dax 0.89% at 20213

US unchanged around record highs
US jobless claims rise to 224k
Fed Powell signals to a slower pace of rate cuts
Oil inches higher as OPEC+ is set to postpone oil output hikes

Stocks hover a record high

U.S. stocks are set for a muted opening as investors digest the latest jobs data and look ahead to tomorrow's nonfarm payroll report.

Yesterday, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100, and the Dow Jones booked record closing highs thanks to a surging technology sector.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell highlighted the strength of the US economy and signaled a slower pace for interest rate cuts, echoing Mary Daly's view that there was no urgency to cut rates further. The market is still pricing in a 75% chance word a December rate cut.

Today's jobless claims data showed that the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits increased modestly compared to last week, up 224,000, implying that the labour market continues to cool.

Attention now turns to tomorrow's nonfarm payroll report, which is expected to show that 200,000 jobs were added in February after just 12,000 were added in October, following strike action and the impact of hurricanes.

Corporate news

Dollar General trades higher after the discount chain operator posted Q3 revenue ahead of forecasts whilst also trimming the upper end of its annual forecast owing to hurricane expenses.

Southwest Airlines is flying higher after revising its Q4 revenue per available seat mile forecast, thanks to stronger pricing and a resurgence in domestic demand.

MicroStatregty and other crypto stocks are surging after Bitcoin, the world's largest digital currency, shot above 100k to fresh record highs following Trump's selection of Paul Aitken for SEC chair. Paul is expected to bring pro-crypto regulation to Washington, replacing Gary Gensler, who adopted a tough stance on the crypto industry in recent years.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis.

The Nasdaq 100 recovered from the 20,300 mid-November low, rising above 21,000 to 21,500, a fresh ATH. The RSI above 50 supports further upside while it remains out of the overbought territory. Buyers will look to extend gains to 21,600, the rising trendline resistance. On the downside, immediate support is at 21,300, the November 11 low, opening the door to 20,700. A break below 20,300 is needed to create a lower low.

FX markets – USD falls, EUR/USD rises

The USD is falling after weaker-than-expected jobs data and as attention turns to NFP data tomorrow. The US jobless claims rose to 224k and jo cuts were higher than expected.

EUR/USD is rising despite the collapse of the French government as Michel Barnier lost a vote of no-confidence, as expected. Eurozone retail sales were also weaker than expected. However, the EUR is gaining, taking advantage of the weaker USD.

GBP/USD is rising amid a weaker USD. The BoE’s DMP quarterly survey showed that UK companies' inflation expectations rose to 2.7% in the final quarter. This survey is closely watched by BoE policymakers, who have warned that they see a slower path to rate cuts following the budget.

Oil rises as OPEC is set to delay output increases to April

Oil prices are inching higher after yesterday's losses as the market weighs reports that OPEC+ is planning to delay planned oil output increases until April next year.

The delay comes as the oil group attempts to support prices amid weak demand notably from China and rising supply from outside OPEC. The group had been originally planning to unwind output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day from October this year.

Meanwhile, US oil stockpiles showed a larger than expected draw al, frank some support to the price.

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.