Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises ahead of data & on Nvidia superchip news

US futures

Dow future 0.34% at 42803

S&P futures 0.3% at 5991

Nasdaq futures 0.15% at 21600

In Europe

FTSE -0.1% at 8240

Dax 0.85% at 20145

US JOTS job opening & ISM services PMI data due
Nvidia rises after new AI superchip unveiling
Biden administration blacklists Tencent & CATL
Oil rises on supply worries

Stocks rise ahead of ISM services PMI

U.S. stocks are heading for a positive open as investors await economic data and further insight into the incoming Trump administration's policies.

US jolts job openings and ISM services PMI data are due later in the session. Signs of ongoing resilience within the economy could further dampen Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The data comes ahead of Friday's non-farm payroll, which is likely to be the first major test for the markets in 2025.

Signs of a stronger labor market and worries over reviving inflation could see the Federal Reserve sit on the sidelines until later in the year. The US 10-year treasury yield has risen to 4.63%, near its highest level since May 2024.

Richmond, Fed President Thomas Barkin is scheduled to speak and will be watched closely for clues about inflation and the need to keep borrowing costs restrictive.

As well as watching the data, market participants continue to weigh up uncertainties surrounding President-elect Donald Trump's potential trade tariffs. Trump denied reports that his team was considering a less aggressive approach to tariff policies.

Corporate news

Nvidia is set to open over 2% higher after its chief executive, Jensen Huang, delivered a keynote speech on Monday outlining the company's AI plans. The company also announced new partnerships and products, including an AI super chip and new gaming chips for PCs utilising its Blackwell technology.

Tencent ADRs are set to open lower after the US blacklisted Tencent Holding and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. for alleged links to the Chinese military. The surprise move and we just weeks before Donald Trump takes office, targets the world's largest gaming publisher and a top EV battery maker. Both stocks have denied links to the military. The move threatens to escalate tensions between the world's two largest economies.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis.

The Nasdaq 100 recovered from the 20,780 low for a second time, rebounding above the 50 SMA to its current level around 21,500. Buyers will need to retake 21,850 to create a higher high and open the door to 22,200 and freh all time highs. Meanwhile, support can be seen at 21,250 the November high. Below here 20,780 the January low comes back into play.

FX markets – USD falls, EUR/USD rises

The USD has fallen to a weekly low as markets consider Trump's prospect of less aggressive trade tariffs. The USD has appreciated following Trump’s win on expectations of inflationary measures such as trade tariffs and tax cuts.

EUR/USD is rising but lacks conviction as it gives up earlier gains. Eurozone inflation rose to 2.4% YoY, up from 2.2%. Core inflation remained at 2.7%. The blip isn’t expected to knock the ECB off its rate-cutting path. Meanwhile, eurozone sentix investor confidence slipped to -17.7 in January, down from -17.5 in December. Gemany’s recessionary economy is dragging on sentiment.

GBP/USD is rising for a third straight day, pushing above 1.25 amid a weaker USD and despite mixed retail sales data. Figures from the British Retail Consortium showed that sales rose 3.2% annually in December after falling 3.3% in November. However, in Q4, sales rose just 0.4%.

Oil rises on supply worries

Oil prices are rising, paring earlier declines, amid fears of tight supply related to sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil.

Due to sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, there has been an increase in demand for Middle Eastern oil, reflected in Saudi Arabia's hiking oil prices to Asia.

Shandong Port Group in China also issued a notice on Monday banning US-sanctioned oil vessels from its network, tightening the supply picture.

Meanwhile, cold weather in the US and Europe has also boosted heating oil demand, providing support for prices.

Technically, oil is in overbought territory, so surprise games could be limited.

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.