JOLTS job openings - an employment miss (not to be missed)

View related analysis:

The NFP report could grow in significance again

Rate hikes are really beginning to take a bite out of the US employment numbers, with job openings falling at their fastest pace since the pandemic.

JOLTS job openings fell -1.1 million in August, or -9.8% from 11.2 million to 10.1 million. It’s the fastest monthly drop since April 2020, and the fourth month over the past five that they have fallen. In fact over this period, 1.4 million job openings have disappeared. And market took notice with Wall Street posting strong gains for a second day.

Elsewhere, the employment component of the ISM manufacturing PMI report also contracted in August, which is it second contraction over the past three months. On Thursday we find out of ISM services employment index follows suit.

The job opening miss places greater emphasis on the ADP and NFP reports released today and Friday. ADP fell to a 19-month low of 132k in August and, whilst estimates are for it to rise to 200k later today, a soft print here likely leads to a soft headline NFP print on Friday. And that cold further support the stock market rebound that is gleefully trying to price in a Fed pivot.

And any signs of a Fed pivot likely leads to a weaker US dollar, as hawkish bet are unwound. Perhaps we’re a little ahead of ourselves, but if data does come in on the weak side it strengthens a case for a deeper pullback for the US dollar.

USD/CNH daily chart:

The strong rally on USD/CNH finally stalled just below 7.3000 with a bearish hammer, which marked the cycle high. Momentum has clearly turned lower, and prices are now testing trend support on the daily chart.

The famous 7.000 level is less than a day’s ATR away from yesterday’s close, and a break of trend support likely sees prices retest it. If course, being such a round number also means it is a likely support level, at least initially. But a break beneath it is also likely to be a positive signal for risk assets, given markets were concerned that something could ‘break’ should USD/CNH rise and hold above it.

How to trade with City Index

You can easily trade with City Index by using these four easy steps:

Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer

• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
Search for the company you want to trade in our award-winning platform
Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
Place the trade

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.