Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Downtrend Intact as Yen Sensitivity to BoJ Grows

• USD/JPY moves show a stronger correlation with Japanese bond yields than US rates
• Japan GDP and inflation data, along with BoJ commentary, may spark volatility
• US calendar is light, with Fed speeches unlikely to shift market expectations significantly
• USD/JPY remains in downtrend, with support at 151.30 and resistance near 154.30

Summary

Interest rate differentials between the United States and Japan look set to continue driving USD/JPY moves this week, putting central bank speeches and geopolitical developments in focus in the absence of major economic data from either nation. However, recent yen gyrations have been more aligned with shorter-dated Japanese bond yields rather than the US monetary policy outlook, suggesting Japan’s rate path may be of greater interest to traders in the near term.

Changing of the Guard?

Correlation analysis is a useful tool for identifying what’s been driving USD/JPY moves over a given period, filtering out relationships that are merely coincidental from those with a stronger causal link. The chart below does just that, showing the rolling 20-day correlation coefficient between USD/JPY and various interest rate markets—a known driver of dollar-yen movements.

Source: TradingView

As has been the case in recent months, a strong positive correlation remains with bond yield spreads between the US and Japan, particularly at the long end of the curve with maturities of 10 years or more.

However, what stands out this time is that when looking at rate moves individually in the US and Japan, it’s the latter that has shown a far stronger and more significant relationship with USD/JPY over the past month.

The green line highlights this, showing a rolling correlation coefficient of -0.85 with Japanese two-year yields—a strong negative relationship. In contrast, the correlation with US two-year yields is just 0.05 over the same period, indicating no meaningful relationship. The same applies to market pricing for Fed rate cuts in 2025 (yellow line), which has a correlation score of -0.16.

Whether looking at short or long-dated Japanese rates, the correlation with USD/JPY has been far stronger than with US rates over the past month. That suggests Japanese data and events may play a more significant role in determining directional risks this week. 

USD/JPY Event Risk

The US calendar is light on major event risk, featuring only second-tier data releases and FOMC minutes from a meeting that was arguably one of the least anticipated in months, if not years. While there are numerous Fed speakers—potentially creating volatility—it’s debatable whether their messaging will diverge meaningfully from recent guidance that there’s no rush to recalibrate policy settings further.

Source: TradingView

While the US calendar is quiet, and holiday-shortened due to President’s Day on Monday, Japan’s calendar screens as far more important with GDP data due Monday and inflation figures on Friday.

Also worth watching is Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Hajime Takata’s speech on Tuesday for clues on the potential path for further rate hikes. He’s regarded as an interest rate hawk, and given that other BoJ members have recently used speeches to soften markets up for further rate increases this year, his remarks could inject volatility into USD/JPY.

Source: TradingView

Outside of scheduled events, US trade policy headlines remain a wildcard. Historically, escalating trade tensions have pushed USD/JPY higher, reflecting the increased risk that inflationary pressures could limit or delay Fed rate cuts. Conversely, signs of a willingness to negotiate tend to have the opposite effect. While the reaction function is unlikely to shift meaningfully, a genuine escalation in the trade war could lead to heightened volatility and potential unwinding of yen carry trades, amplifying USD/JPY downside risks.

USD/JPY Downside Bias Retained

Source: TradingView

The USD/JPY weekly chart provides one of the clearest signals on near-term directional risks, with the pair remaining in a downtrend established late last year. Five consecutive lower highs have now been recorded, and last week’s inverted hammer candle suggests sellers remain active at higher levels. MACD and RSI (14) are generating bearish signals, reinforcing an overall downside bias.

For now, support at 151.30 is holding, preventing a deeper unwind. If that level gives way, a push towards the December swing low of 148.65 may follow. On the topside, the 50-week moving average and downtrend resistance are key levels to watch, with the latter currently around 154.30.

-- Written by David Scutt

Follow David on Twitter @scutty

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