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Nasdaq 100 – Dow Ratio: Focus on Concentration Rather than Timing Risk Trends - Top Trade of 2025

Over the past year, the concentration into top market cap stocks – which aligns to tech – has pushed the Nasdaq 100 to Dow ratio well above the Dot-com peak

January 1, 2025 10:00 PM
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S&P 500 forecast: Stocks rebound after FOMC-linked drop, but caution prevails

The recent bearish trend isn’t confined to the S&P 500. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has experienced its first 10-day losing streak since 1974, shedding nearly 2,900 points over two weeks from its highest to its lowest points.

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December 19, 2024 02:23 PM

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Nasdaq Bounce or Break? 21340 Becomes the Battleground

Nasdaq futures are wobbling after the Fed’s hawkish cut, but 21340 is holding firm—for now. Will this level anchor a rebound, or are deeper losses lurking just below?

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December 19, 2024 01:37 AM
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AUD/USD plunges to 2-year low, Santa’s rally faces cancellation

AUD/USD plunged alongside Wall Street indices following the Fed's last meeting of the year. And if Santa’s rally is to kick in at all this year, it could be to pick up some of the crumbs left during yesterday’s volatile selloff.

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ASX 200 Analysis: Santa’s rally timing could be down to the Fed

A decent bullish reversal candle has formed on the ASX 200 on Tuesday, which begs the question as to whether Santa’s rally is about to kick into gear. Although it is the FOMC meeting within the next 24 hours which could decide when or even if it starts at all.

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December 17, 2024 10:06 PM
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Nasdaq’s record high scoffs at Dow’s worst run in 12 years, ASX follows

Wall Street indices are just not on the same page at the moment, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high, while the S&P 500 trading sideways and the Dow chalks up its worst daily bearish streak in 12 years. And that's not good for the ASX.

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USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Yen Slides, Equities Eye Breakout on Rising US Yields

USD/JPY breaks higher as surging US yields keep the yen under pressure. Nikkei 225 traders are taking note, pushing futures towards the top of the recent range before the Fed and BoJ rate decisions – is a bullish breakout on the menu?

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December 15, 2024 10:59 PM
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S&P 500 forecast: US tech stocks maintain strong performance ahead of central bank meetings

After a strong performance throughout the year, there are still no major signs of the trend turning bearish for the S&P 500 heading into the final weeks of the 2024. For that reason, we have no reason to adjust our S&P 500 forecast to bearish just yet from a technical point of view, even macro concerns are plentiful.

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December 12, 2024 02:29 PM
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AUD/USD support dependent on USD/CNH resistance, ASX set to bounce?

AUD/USD made a minor recovery from its 13-month low late on Wednesday, but whether it can muster up the strength for a decent bounce likely sits in the hands of USD/CNH. Although the ASX 200 could be set for a bounce with the Nasdaq reaching a record high and the S&P 500 close to its own ATH.

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Hang Seng, China A50: Moderately loose powers fast and furious rally

China’s policy pivot is turning heads and bosting markets, with Hang Seng and A50 futures charging ahead. As bulls eye breakouts, will this stimulus spark fizzle out or ignite a rally hotter than a Sichuan hotpot?

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December 10, 2024 12:21 AM
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USD/JPY, AUD/JPY rally with China during risk-on trade

China's stock markets were given a nice bump on Monday after the Politburo announced an easing of policy stance. This allowed AUD/JPY and USD/JPY to deliver strong bounce from key support levels, as the yen weakened during a risk-on session for FX and commodities.

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S&P 500 forecast: New highs for US stocks, DAX and Bitcoin

Investors are looking ahead of the all-important non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Ahead of this, there were little signs of waning appetite for risk, keeping the S&P 500 forecast and trend bullish. But as the index starts to drift higher and higher into overbought levels, investors will be wondering when the Trump trade will be fully priced in.

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December 5, 2024 04:34 PM
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EUR/AUD turns higher, ASX 200 falters on sluggish Australian growth

Today's growth figures are unlikely to force the RBA into any easing action, but it has been enough to weigh on the Australian dollar and ASX 200. And this could allow EUR/AUD to continue higher after a 4-day retracement.

Research

S&P 500 Melt-Up? The Data-Driven Case for SPX Upside in December

What are the odds of a Deecember melt up in the S&P 500?

ASX hits record high in thin trade, but double top clouds the outlook

ASX 200 futures (SPI 200) were allowed to print a fresh record high on a daily-close basis. Yet 8500 remains a clear level of resistance, and one which prompted a potential bearish reversal pattern.

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November 28, 2024 10:32 PM
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Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Can the Bullish Momentum Continue?

Despite the current gains, a correction may be necessary before the market can sustain a significant upward trajectory, but so far, the technical Nasdaq 100 analysis is still bullish and we haven’t seen a reversal stick.

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November 28, 2024 02:50 PM

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With Wall Street bucking its Thanksgiving trend, the ASX could struggle

Wall Street indices took the relatively rare step of ignoring its tendency to rally ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, and price action suggests there could be deeper pullback. Which may not bode so well for ASX 200 bulls who may be sleeping behind their wheel around a record high.

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CAC, DAX forecast: EU stocks struggle amid political uncertainty as Wall Street hits records

In Europe, concerns about US tariffs, a struggling Eurozone economy and political uncertainty in France and Germany are continuing to hold back risk assets. France's CAC index is now nearly 6% lower on the year. The DAX forecast is also far from bullish, with a key drag being the European auto sector’s reaction to potential tariff threats.

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November 27, 2024 01:00 PM
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DAX outlook: Eurozone woes have been more troublesome for euro than stocks – but for how long?

Caught in the middle of an outperforming US and underperforming Chinese equities, European markets rallied last week despite fresh concerns about the eurozone economy. While the selling has been contained to the euro so far, should recession worries intensify then we could see the stock market also respond negatively, putting the DAX outlook on a negative watch.

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November 24, 2024 08:00 AM
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S&P 500 Forecast: Futures rise as Nvidia stock rebounds

While the market appears bullish right now, the S&P 500 forecast is far from certain, especially with a lack of fresh bullish catalysts to consider. Could profit-taking negatively impact the market soon?

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November 21, 2024 01:30 PM

GBPUSD, Nasdaq Forecast: Trends in Recovery Mode?

GBPUSD, Nasdaq Forecast: Following the DXY’s pullback from the 107-mark, the GBPUSD held its ground, hinting at a potential bullish rebound. Meanwhile, Nasdaq entered a pullback mode to recharge from the Trump rally effect, signaling a possible recovery phase.

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The Hang Seng has had quite the relationship with the 61.8% this year

The Hang Seng has seen no fewer than six times already this year on the daily charts, and it looks like it wants to tally up a seventh.

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November 19, 2024 12:16 AM