Gold Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Poised for Breakout on Trump Tariffs

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• Gold prices rally extending for seventh week- testing multi-year uptrend
• XAU/USD weekly opening-range breakout pending imminent- President Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs
• Resistance 2942 (key), 2978, 3000- Support 2860, 2787-2804 (key), 2715

Gold prices are poised to mark a seventh consecutive weekly advance with XAU/USD rallying more than 12.2% since the start of the year. The advance is now probing uptrend resistance at fresh record highs with weekly momentum deep in overbought territory. All eyes now shift to President Trump’s tariff announcement later today with gold poised for a breakout of the weekly opening-range. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts heading into the close of the week.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Short-term Price Outlook we noted that the, “The gold breakout has extended into uptrend resistance and the immediate advance may be vulnerable here near-term. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 2715 IF price is heading higher on his stretch with a close above 2761 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” XAU/USD registered an intraday low at 2730 the following week before reversing sharply higher with the advance extending more than 12.5%off the January lows.

The rally is now testing the upper parallel of the ascending pitchfork we’ve been tracking off the 2022/2023 lows- looking for a reaction into this slope this week with a topside breach / close above needed to mark uptrend resumption.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines of an embedded pitchfork extending off the November /December lows with the median-line catching the highs early in the week. The weekly opening-range is now set just above the objective weekly open and the focus is on a breakout of this range for immediate guidance.

A topside breach of the median-line / weekly opening-range high at 2942 exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 300% extension of the 2022 range breakout at 2978 and 3000. The next major technical consideration is eyed at 3031- a level defined by the 2.272% extension of the 2011 decline and the 2.618% extension of the November advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Weekly open support rests at 2860 with medium-term bullish invalidation now set to 2787-2804- a region defined by the 2024 high-close, the objective February open, and the 2.618% extension. Note the lower parallel of the November pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a close below this zone would suggest a more significant high was registered his week / a larger correction is underway.

Bottom line: Gold is testing multi-year uptrend resistance today and the immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range 2860-2942. from a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 2787 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the median-line needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind President Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs today could fuel market volatility- watch the weekly close on Friday for guidance. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term look at the XAU/USD trade levels.  

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex