Gold Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls at Major Hurdle Ahead of NFP
Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels
- Gold bulls testing uptrend resistance at record highs- risk for price infection early in the month
- XAU/USD weekly / monthly opening-range taking shape- US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap
- Resistance 2643/71 (key), 2700, 2743- Support 2589, 2530, 2469/83 (key)
Gold prices surged more than 5.2% last month with XAU/USD rallying into technical resistance at fresh record highs. The weekly opening-range remains intact just below and the focus is on a possible near-term breakout into the days ahead. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts heading into NFP.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Short-term Price Outlook we maintained a constructive outlook while noting that, “A breach above 2600 would keep the focus on a major Fibonacci confluence up near 2643/71-a region defined by the 100% extension of the 2015 advance and the 1.618% extension of the June rally. Note that numerous slopes converge on this threshold over the next few weeks and further highlight its technical significance- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.”
The rally halted at this key inflection zone last week with gold unable to mark a daily close above (record intraday high registered at 2685). The focus is on possible price inflection off this zone with the weekly / monthly opening-range taking shape just below.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork extending off the April / June lows with the upper parallel further highlighting key resistance last week. A break below the weekly opening-range would shift the focus towards a test of the median-line / 23.6% retracement of the May rally at 2589- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent support rests at 2530 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the July high close / July high at 2469/83.
A topside breach of the weekly range exposes the upper parallel near ~2700- a daily close above this slope is needed to mark uptrend resumption with such a scenario likely to fuel another accelerated rally towards subsequent resistance objective at 2743 and the 2.618% extension of the 2022 range at 2804.
Bottom line: Gold is trading just below uptrend resistance into the start of the month with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below. From at trading standpoint, the focus is on a near-term breakout for guidance- losses should be limited to 2589 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 2700 needed to fuel the next major leg.
Keep in mind we are just carving the monthly opening-range with US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term look at the XAU/USD trade levels.
Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts
- Euro Short-term Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Plunges into October
- US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Defends Support at Fresh Yearly Low
- Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Reversal off Resistance
- British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Eyes Resistance
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.
ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.
City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.
The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.
The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
© City Index 2024