Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Consolidation Triangle
Gold Talking Points:
- It was a strong outing in 2024 for gold as the metal showed its largest annual gain since 2010, discussed in last week’s article with additional detail.
- Since setting a high in late-October, gold prices have been digesting and consolidating and it’s taken on the form of a symmetrical triangle formation.
- Within that formation, price is testing support at prior short-term resistance. Below today’s low, it’s the $2,600 level that stands out as important, discussed further below.
- I look at gold in-depth during each weekly webinar on Tuesday. You’re welcome to join: Click here for registration information.
The slowing of volatility in gold has been noticeable of late and that’s particularly true if looking at the weekly chart. After a ripping up-trend started in Q1 of last year and ran clearly through the Q4 open, the past two months and a week have been less enthusiastic for bulls. But this doesn’t necessarily mean that buyers are finished as the symmetrical triangle on the below chart, when combined with the bullish trend that pushed into that formation, can be argued as a bull pennant formation. Such formations are common as an illustration of consolidation after a strong bullish move, as a combination of profit taking from prior longs and late-stage bullish press from buyers trying to bid support on pullbacks can lead to a narrowing in price action, such as we’ve seen since both the late-October and mid-November inflection points.
Normally, bull pennants are approached with aim of topside continuation. I look at the formations more neutrally, however, as prolonged consolidation doesn’t always carry the prior bias. But given the build of higher-lows after a move that priced in as much as a 40.6% gain last year, bulls can’t yet be counted out.
Gold Weekly Price Chart
Gold Shorter-Term
The 2721 level was a big spot for gold last year, helping to set swing highs in both late-November and then in December. That second inflection led to a higher-low along with a test below $2600, which then held the lows last week to allow for yet another higher-low, further substantiating the support trendline making up the triangle formation.
The bounce from the $2600 support test led to a short-term higher-high, and the pullback from that appears to be grasping to retain support around prior resistance from the $2633-$2639 zone.
This could be construed as a bullish short-term bias but it’s important to qualify that this is all taking place inside of the longer-term or bigger picture consolidation of the symmetrical triangle.
Gold Daily Chart
Gold Even Shorter-Term
From the four-hour we can see a busy start to the week for gold prices and the most recently completed four-hour candle printed as a long-legged doji. This provides some scope of shorter-term support and resistance levels, as it was the 2650 level that seemed to deter bulls earlier in the morning, after which prices dipped down to just below 2615.
A breach of either of those prices could be construed as a short-term directional move; and for deeper support, there’s the trendline projection currently plotted around $2604, after which the $2600 level comes into the picture. For topside, a breach of $2650 opens the door for re-test of $2657, after which last week’s high comes into the picture at $2664 and that’s followed by the Fibonacci level at $2674.
Gold Four-Hour Price Chart
--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.
ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.
City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.
The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.
The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
© City Index 2025