Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bulls Test Key Resistance at Record High
Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- Gold price poised to mark three-week rally- now testing major resistance at record high
- XAU/USD immediate rally may be vulnerable- weekly close critical
- Resistance 2643/71 (key), 2743, 2804 – Support 2622, 2517/24, 2450 (key)
Gold prices are poised to mark a third consecutive-weekly advance with XAU/USD surging to fresh record highs today in US trade. The rally is now testing a critical resistance zone we’ve been tracking for months, and the focus is on possible price inflection here- failure to mark a weekly close above this threshold may risk exhaustion for the bulls. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart into the close of the month.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that XAU/USD had, “broken above a major technical hurdle with weekly momentum still deep in overbought territory. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a rally toward the upper parallels (2643/71)- losses should be limited to 2450 IF price is heading higher on this stretch.” Gold surged more than 4% over the past two-weeks with price now testing this critical resistance zone- looking for possible inflection here into the close of the month with the immediate advance vulnerable while below.
A weekly close above 2643/71 is needed to keep the immediate rally viable with such scenario likely to fuel another accelerated advance. Confluent resistance objectives eyed at the 200% extension of the 2022 advance at 2743 and the 2.618% extension of the 2022 decline at 2804- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.
Weekly-open support rests at 2622 and is backed by 2517/24- a region defined by the 1.618% Fibonacci extension of the October advance and the measured inverse head-and-shoulders objective of the 2022 advance. Note that numerous slopes converge on this threshold and pullbacks would need to be limited to this level for the September breakout to remain in play. Broader bullish invalidation now raised to the objective May high at 2450.
Bottom line: Gold is testing a critical resistance zone today / this week and the focus is on a reaction off this key threshold with the bulls vulnerable while below. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to the 2517 IF gold is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 2671 needed to keep the immediate advance viable / fuel the next leg in price.
Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data tomorrow with the August Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on tap. Watch the weekly close here and stay nimble into the monthly cross.
Key US Economic Data Releases
Active Weekly Technical Charts
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.
ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.
City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.
The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.
The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
© City Index 2024