Open account
☰
Open account
✖

European Open: RBNZ hike, FTSE holds support, Lira in freefall

Article By: ,  Market Analyst
November 24, 2021 5:04 AM

Asian Indices:

  • Australia's ASX 200 index fell by 0.2 points (0%) and currently trades at 7,410.80
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 index has fallen by -15.72 points (-0.06%) and currently trades at 24,635.86
  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has fallen by -15.72 points (-0.06%) and currently trades at 24,635.86
  • China's A50 Index has risen by 27.34 points (0.17%) and currently trades at 15,676.94

UK and Europe:

  • UK's FTSE 100 futures are currently down -9.5 points (-0.13%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,257.19
  • Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently down -2 points (-0.05%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 4,281.82
  • Germany's DAX futures are currently down -14 points (-0.09%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 15,923.00

US Futures:

  • DJI futures are currently up 194.55 points (0.55%)
  • S&P 500 futures are currently down -37.25 points (-0.23%)
  • Nasdaq 100 futures are currently down -11.5 points (-0.25%)

Hawkish hike from RBNZ, although pace is yet to be determined

The 25 bps point hike was expected, and whilst it was a ‘hawkish hike’ as they have upped their OCR target, RBNZ hinted that future hikes will be on a per-meeting basis. As an export economy they don’t want a high exchange rate yet must also raise rates to fend hot inflation. Therefore, whilst their approach signals their hawkish intent over the longer-term, it helps keep a bit of a lid on NZD prices as speculators aren’t sure if another hike is imminent. Not bad really.

The Turkish Lira is falling off a cliff (faster than Turkeys from Thanksgiving shelves)

Just when you think the Lira has had enough of a beating, its volatility rising volatility unleashes further downside. The Lira hit new lows yesterday after President Erdogan doubled down on his fight against (but inadvertently actually with) inflation, and reports that he’s called for a meeting with the central bank heads sent their currency into another tailspin. USD/TRY rallied nearly 13% yesterday, and we cannot say the damage is yet complete.

That said, the last time USD/TRY rallied over 10% in a single day marked the top in 2018. But unless Erdogan swiftly changes his ways (which we doubt he will) then it’s hard to say the Lira will actually hit rock bottom today.

7200 – 7300 is the key range for the FTSE 100

After falling -2.6% from last week’s high the FTSE 100 has found stability above 7200 and its 50-day eMA. A bullish inside day and subsequent bullish outside day have reaffirmed support around 7200, and a break above 7300 is now required to confirm a swing low is in place. Remembering that an inverted head and shoulder remains in play, which projects a target around 7500, we are seeking fresh opportunities for longs whilst prices hold above the 7180 – 7200 support zone.

Virgin Money UK PLC (VMUK) release earnings today at 18:00.

FTSE 350: 4153.16 (-0.45%) 19 November 2021

  • 130 (37.04%) stocks advanced and 206 (58.69%) declined
  • 22 stocks rose to a new 52-week high, 12 fell to new lows
  • 100% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
  • 56.41% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
  • 28.77% of stocks closed above their 20-day average

Outperformers:

  • + 6.84%-Ocado Group PLC(OCDO.L)
  • + 4.70%-Baltic Classifieds Group PLC(BCG.L)
  • + 3.70%-Royal Mail PLC (RMG.L)

Underperformers:

  • -8.00%-Mitie Group PLC(MTO.L)
  • -5.22%-Compass Group PLC(CPG.L)
  • -4.64%-Wizz Air Holdings PLC(WIZZ.L)

Eyes on consumer sentiment and GDP for the US

The University of Michigan also release their final read for consumer sentiment. We took an in-depth look at the initial release which revealed some interesting patterns, so we’re keen to see if any numbers have been significantly revised. Whilst consumer sentiment is not usually an immediate market mover, it is an indicator which can fine tune macro views and could become more significant for our outlook for 2022 if the negativity persists.

The US also release their second estimate for GDP today. Headline growth undershot expectations in preliminary release, rising just 2% to make it the slowest rate of growth since lockdowns. It’s a backwards looking indicator at the best of times, so unless we see a significantly revised number to the upside today then it likely won’t excite markets. However, buried in the numbers were signs of softer inflation with PCE and core PCE prices moving lower in Q3. Should these numbers remain lower than Q2 then it is something that Fed doves could be quick to pounce on as part of their ‘transitory’ inflation case.

But first, Germany release their IFO business sentiment report. And given the bounce on euro pairs yesterday after higher PMI data then a decent ZEW print today could provide further support. Yet it should also be remembered that with parts of Europe (and Germany) potentially facing news lockdowns then upside could be limited from here for the euro.

Up Next (Times in GMT)

How to trade with City Index

You can easily trade with City Index by using these four easy steps:

  1. Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer 

    • Open an account in the UK
    • Open an account in Australia
    • Open an account in Singapore

  2. Search for the company you want to trade in our award-winning platform 
  3. Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels 
  4. Place the trade

 

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

© City Index 2024