Earnings This Week: Apple, AMD and UK oil stocks

Corporate earnings calendar: Oct 30 – Nov 1

US earnings season continues this week, headlined by results out from the world’s most valuable publicly-listed company Apple. Other major US stocks to watch include chipmaker AMD, tech firm Qualcomm, payments giant PayPal and household names like DoorDash, Airbnb, McDonalds and Pinterest.

Pharmaceutical giants will also be under the spotlight as Pfizer, Moderna, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk report results.

In the UK, oil giants BP and Shell update the markets alongside other major names including pharma outfit GSK, consumer healthcare firm Haleon, retailer Next, luxury carmaker Aston Martin, supermarket Sainsbury’s and telecoms behemoth BT Group.

Below is an outline of all the key earnings to watch over the coming week.

Apple stock: Q4 earnings preview

Apple shares have sunk to six-month lows ahead of its results this week as concerns grow about demand for its new iPhone 15 and array of other hardware.

Apple has already warned that revenue will be down for a fourth consecutive quarter in the final three months of its financial year, with analysts anticipating a 1% drop to $89.27 billion. Sales of its flagship iPhone, which accounts for about half of its revenue, are predicted to rise 2.3% from last year and services growth is accelerating, but that will not be enough to counter the ongoing weakness in demand for iPads, Macs and wearables.

The iPhone 15 only hit the shelves in September, so this quarter will only reflect a couple of weeks of sales. Still, a beat on iPhone sales would help install confidence that the model has been well-received, but the first real test will be in the final three months of 2023 covering the busy holiday shopping season.

There will be a lot of attention on China amid fears that consumers are switching away from Apple products due to increased political pressure on foreign companies, and turning to domestic rivals like Huawei. Sentiment was recently rattled by reports that iPhone 15 sales in China are down about 4.5% over their first 17 days of release compared to its predecessor the year before, according to research from Counterpoint Research and published by Bloomberg, putting it on course to see the worst debut of an iPhone in the country since 2018. That report came on the same day that Jefferies warned it thinks sales are down at a much sharper double-digit percentage because of the success of Chinese rival Huawei’s new Mate 60 Pro, which it believes has allowed the Chinese firm to leapfrog Apple and take the top spot in the market.

Apple has not been providing formal guidance for years, citing uncertain conditions, but investors will keep an eye on commentary on what to expect in the new financial year. Wall Street is expecting revenue to start growing again in the first quarter, driven by the iPhone 15 and a turnaround in Mac and wearables, and helped by easier comparatives. The smartphone and the broader electronics market is showing signs that it is hitting a bottom and that consumers will start upgrading their tech bought during the pandemic. Still, markets will want confirmation and the uncertain economic landscape poses a threat.

Watch out for a more in-depth preview on Apple out on our News & Analysis page next week.

AMD stock: Q3 earnings preview

AMD has fallen behind in the race to supply advanced chips that can power new technologies like AI and machine learning, which may heighten the need for it to impress with its core business this earnings season unless it can show that AI is providing a major tailwind.

Revenue is expected to rise just 2.5% from last year to $5.71 billion and, although tepid, that would follow on from two consecutive quarter of declines.

That will be largely down to its Client segment that provides CPUs, GPUs and processors into laptops and computers coming up against easier comparatives. Sales are forecast to be up 20.6% from last year at $1.23 billion. That will bolster hopes that the lull in demand for consumer electronics is bottoming-out, but that still remains significantly below historic levels. Plus, gaming will remain weak, with sales set to drop over 6%, but appears on course to potentially start rebounding in the near future.

The data centre division is forecast to see revenue rise a measly 0.9% this quarter, which may be underwhelming after AMD guided for an acceleration in growth during the second half and shifting more pressure onto its fourth quarter results.

Adjusted EPS is expected to rise 1% from last year to $0.68.

PayPal stock: Q3 earnings preview

US consumer spending remains resilient and PayPal should be the latest payments firm to deliver solid results, albeit plagued by the uncertain economic outlook.

Total payment volumes are seen rising 14% from last year thanks to the resiliency of consumers determined to keep shopping. Net revenue is forecast to rise 7.9% to $7.38 billion and adjusted EPS is expected to increase 13.9% to $1.23, at the top-end of its guidance range as growth and cost-cutting help margins improve sequentially.

User numbers may stay stable, but the focus is on engagement and encouraging existing users to utilise its services more often. New CEO Alex Chriss has a chance to install confidence, although it may be too early for any major changes.

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk: Q3 earnings preview

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have both grabbed headlines and hit fresh all-time highs this year as markets get increasingly excited by the prospects of their diabetes drugs and their potential to help treat weight-loss, which will remain the central theme this earnings season.

Eli Lilly is forecast to report a 29.6% year-on-year rise in revenue to $8.99 billion in the third quarter. Mounjaro is forecast to report sales of $1.26 billion, over a six-fold increase from the year before and almost $300 million ahead of the previous quarter to show the level of traction it is gaining. Wall Street is expecting Eli Lilly to report an adjusted loss per share of $0.18.

Novo Nordisk has already raised its guidance ahead of the results and suggests we should see a strong set of results. The Danish firm is forecast to deliver a 26.5% rise in revenue in the third quarter to DKK57,632 million. Operating profit, its headline measure, is seen climbing over 25% to DKK25,309 million. Novo Nordisk has two diabetes drug that markets are watching. Ozempic sales are seen rising 44% to DKK23,559 million and Wegovy sales are forecast to come in at DKK8,027 million compared to just DKK1,157 million the year before.

HSBC share price: Q3 earnings preview

All the major UK banks have reported results for the third quarter, apart from HSBC which will wrap things up this week. The performance has been mixed thus far, plagued by a bleaker economic outlook. Meanwhile, a miss from Standard Chartered may be of particular note as it, like HSBC, is predominantly focused on Asia – with the bank missing estimates after its exposure to China weighed on its results.

Still, HSBC has been an outperformer this year and, following its impressive first half results, it is set to report a pre-tax profit of $8.44 billion, up from $3.15 billion in 2022 but down sequentially from $8.8 billion. Revenue is expected to rise by 28% to $16.95 billion.

The bank has benefited from a strong rise in revenue as it benefits from higher interest income across its global business, so much so that it announced a $2 billion share buyback in the previous quarter. HSBC saw a particularly strong performance in its commercial banking and wealth and personal banking segments. Investment banking revenue will be under the spotlight, with growth expected to slow, while wealth and personal banking revenue growth could increase. 

BP and Shell: Q3 earnings preview

Oil prices were lower in the third quarter than the year before but they have improved since the second as conflict in the Middle East has pushed the price per barrel higher. That means year-on-year declines but a sequential improvement.

BP is forecast to report a underlying replacement cost profit, its headline measure, of $4.06 billion in the third quarter, down 50% from what we saw the year before. Interim CEO Murray Auchincloss is likely to refrain from making any major strategy changes following Bernard Looney’s exit. The pace of share buybacks in the fourth quarter will be key to sentiment, with analysts anticipating it will hold steady at $1.5 billion.

Shell’s main figure to watch is adjusted earnings, which is expected to fall over 34% from last year to $6.22 billion. Cashflow will be particularly strong due to a $4 billion working capital release, suggesting that Shell should, at least, maintain its current pace of about $3 billion in the fourth quarter or lead to a potential hike.

Sainsbury’s share price: H1 earnings preview

Sainsbury’s is forecast to report a 4.1% rise in revenue from last year to £17.07 billion as higher prices buoy the grocery topline, aided by a return to volume growth. Grocery sales are seen rising over 11%. General merchandise, driven by Argos and Habitat and accounting for almost one-fifth of revenue, is expected to grow 3.1%. Clothing could remain weak, with analysts anticipating a 2.5% drop in revenue.

The success of its Nectar loyalty programme will also be under the spotlight as Sainsbury’s, and others like Tesco, wield their cards to lure shoppers back from discounters like Aldi and Lidl.

Underlying pretax profit is seen declining 1.5% to £335 million as higher wage and energy costs weigh on margins, although there is scope for it to impress here if revenue grows faster than anticipated given the acceleration we have seen over the past year.

Sainsbury’s is currently guiding for annual underlying pretax profit of between £630 million to £690 million and at least £500 million in retail free cashflow, so keep an eye on whether this is reiterated or changed.

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