Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls ahead of a busy week for data
Dow Jones Forecast DJIA falls ahead of a busy week for data US Open 2024 9 3
US futures
Dow future 0.41% at 41328
S&P futures -0.62% at 5613
Nasdaq futures -0.75% at 19447
In Europe
FTSE -0.54% at 8312
Dax -0.47% at 18839
- US stocks fall after the Labour Day long weekend
- US ISM manufacturing PMIs is due
- USD extends is recovery from a 13 month low
- Oil falls on China demand concerns
Stocks falls after the extended weekend
U.S. stocks are heading for a lower open at the start of a busy week for economic data. Starting today with the ISM manufacturing PMIs there are plenty of reports across the week which could influence the extent to which the Federal Reserve will be cutting rates.
US stocks recovered from the early August sell off and ended the month higher, marking the fourth straight monthly gain after data pointed to a resilient economy.
The Dow Jones is at record highs and the S&P500 is within 1% of its ATH as the market enters September historically bearish month for the main indices
History suggests September is the worst month of the year for stock market performance generating an average monthly decline of 1.2% on the S&P 500 and a 1.1% drop on the Dow Jones.
Attention is on ISM manufacturing data which is due shortly and is expected to show that activity improved in August but remained below the 50 level separating expansion from contraction.
The main focus this week will be on the US labour market numbers with Friday’s nonfarm payroll. The jobs data will be under more scrutiny than usual after July's report pointed to a larger than expected slowdown and sparked global sell off in risk assets.
The Federal Reserve meeting is due later this month and the market is pricing in a 33% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut and a 67% probability of a 25 basis point cut.
Corporate news
Tesla is rising premarket after data yesterday showed EV maker booked the best month in China so far this year in August benefiting from stronger sales in smaller cities.
United States Steel is set to open over 5% lower after US Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris indicated that she would block Japan's Nippon Steel's proposed $14.9 billion takeover of the steel company.
Dow Jones forecast – technical analysis.
The Dow Jones rose to a fresh all-time high of 41582 last week. The price hovers just below here but is still comfortably above the 41000 support level and the falling trendline support. Buyers, supported by the RSI above 50, will look to rise above 41582 to fresh all-time highs.
FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls
The USD is rising as it extebds its recovery from a 13 moth low as the market reins in outsized Fed rate cut expectations and lowere recession fears.
EUR/USD is falling amid a quiet economic calendar in the eurozone leaving the USD driving the pair. Data on Friday confirmed that eurozone inflation cooled in line with forecasts and weak manufacturing PMI data yesterday supported the view that the ECB could cut rates in September.
GBP/USD is faling on a stronger U.S. dollar and despite signs of an improving consumer environment in the UK. British consumer spending rose in August by 1% according to the BRC raising optimism that consumers could help the economic recovery in H2 as confidence improves and real income grows.
Oil tumbles on China worries
Oil prices are heading lower as concerns over economic growth in China the world's largest oil importer overshadow the impact of halted production in Libya.
Weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI data over the weekend fueled concerns about the Chinese economy's performance. Meanwhile, on Monday China reported that manufacturing new export orders fell for the first time in eight months and the prices of new homes rose in August at that weakest pace this year.
On the other side Libyan oil exports at major ports and oil production were halted on Monday amid a standoff between rival political factions and the central bank over oil revenue.
Finally OPEC+ is expected to go ahead with oil supply increases this month which is adding pressure to oil prices.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.
ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.
City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.
The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.
The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
© City Index 2024