dax relentless ascend continues turn neutral between 10350 9925 1817892016

Daily Outlook, Thurs 23 June 2016

(Click to enlarge charts)

What happened earlier/yesterday

The Germany 30 Index (proxy for the DAX futures) has continued its relentless surge and broke (daily close) above the 10110 medium-term pivotal resistance which invalidated the preferred bearish scenario within the range. Since the last Thursdays, 16 June low of 9431, it has already rallied by 7.6% to print a high of 10150 seen in yesterday’s late European session and almost wiped out the loss of the recent decline from 07 June 2016 high of 10316.

European equities continue to outperform the rest of world as market participants continued to price an “optimistic” outcome that will see the “Remain” camp win in the U.K.’s EU referendum that is opening to the polls in a few hours’ time.

Please click on this link for a recap on our prior daily short-term technical outlook/strategy.

Key elements

The on-going rally from 16 June 2016 low is now coming close to a descending trendline resistance (depicted in dotted purple) in place since the major swing high of 21 April 2016.
Momentum indicators such as the daily RSI oscillator is now at resistance and the shorter-term (4hour) Stochastic oscillator has continued to flash a bearish divergence signal. These observations suggest the upside momentum of the on-going rally continues to wane in contrast with price action that continues to display “higher highs”.
The significant near-term support rests at the 9925 which is the reintegrated minor “triangle range” support from 06 May 2016 low (depicted in dotted purple.

Key levels (1 to 3 days)

Resistances: 10350 & 10530/650 (long-term)

Supports: 9925, 9750/700 & 9580

Conclusion

Price action of the Index has continued its ascend without any signs of profit-taking. Therefore, we are now turning neutral in the short-term and wait for clearer technical signals before taking on a directional bias.

Watch the 9925 and 10350 levels. Only a break below the 9925 support is likely to trigger a potential decline to target the next supports at 9750/700 (gap) and 9580 (minor swing low of 17 June 2016) in the first step. On the other hand, a break above the 10350 resistance may unleash a further push up to test the 10530/650 long-term resistance (upper boundary of an on-going descending channel in place since seen 12 April 2015 high & the major swing high of 21 April 2016).

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