Daily Key Short Term Technical Levels Mon 13 Nov 2017

FX –  USD weakness still intact in EUR & JPY

• EUR/USD – Pushed up as expected and almost hit the of 1.1690/1712 (medium-term upside trigger) (printed a high of 1.1678 on last Fri, 10 Nov in the U.S. session).  Elliot Wave/fractal analysis with hourly Stochastic oscillator that is inching down towards its extreme oversold level of 4.5%  advocates the risk of a minor pull-back/consolidation to retrace the recent advance from 07 Nov 2017 low to last Fri, 10 Nov high of 1.1678 at this juncture. Potential minor pull-back  zone rests at 1.1615/16000 (50%/61% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally from 07 Nov low to 10 Nov 2017 high + minor ascending trendline from 07 Nov 2017 low). Thus, as long as the 1.16000 key short-term support holds, the pair may shape another potential upleg to retest 1.1690/1.1712. A break above 1.1712 is likely to reinforce the start of a potential bullish impulsive wave sequence towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.1825/1840 (minor swing high area of 26 Oct 2017) in the first step.
• GBP/USD – No change, still evolving within a range configuration since 06 Oct 2017. Maintain neutrality stance between 1.3030 & 1.3325.
• AUD/USD – No change, still evolving within a range configuration since 27 Oct 2017 low of 0.7626. Current price action suggests that the pair is sandwiched inside an impending minor bearish “Descending Triangle” range configuration (seen in the hourly chart since 27 Oct 2017 low) and Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggests that price action has not reached the potential inflection level of the “Descending Triangle” where the pair will start the shape another round of potential bearish impulsive wave sequence (right now, likely undergoing a micro wave c* of a typical 5 wave sequence to complete a triangle range pattern (a*, b*,c*, d* & e*).  Thus, maintain neutrality stance between 0.7730 & 0.7625.
• NZD/USD – No change, still trading sideways below the 0.6690/0.7015 key short-term resistance and 0.6880 (minor swing low of 06 Nov 2017 + minor ascending trendline from 27 Oct 2017 low) needs to be broken to trigger a bearish breakdown of this on-going range environment in place since 27 Oct 2017 for the start of another potential bearish impulsive wave sequence to target next intermediate support coming in at 0.6745/6720 (lower boundary of a minor descending channel from 17 Oct 2017 high + Fibonacci projection cluster).
• USD/JPY – No change, maintain bearish bias below 114.07 tightened key short-term resistance for potential push down to test 113.00 and below it opens up scope for further decline towards the next support at 112.90/70 (medium-term swing low area of 13 Oct 2017 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 08 Sep 2017 low to 06 Nov 2017 high).

Commodities – WTI risk of a minor decline

• Gold –  No change, still evolving within a range configuration, thus maintain neutrality stance between 1290 & 1265.
• WTI Crude (Dec 2017) – Last week’s price action has formed a weekly “Spinning Top” candlestick pattern right below the 58.30  (upper limit of an “Expanding Wedge” configuration in place since Jun 2016) which indicates bullish exhaustion after its recent run-up since 09 Oct 2017 low. Turn bearish below 57.53 key short-term resistance (minor descending trendline from 09 Nov 2017 high) for a potential minor push down to test the intermediate support at 55.60 (minor steep ascending trendline from 20 Oct 2017 low) in the first step.  

Stock Indices (CFD) –  Australia 200 the last “bull” while the rest are showing signs of entering into potential medium-term (1-3weeks) corrective decline phase

• US SP 500 – Last Fri (10 Nov) price action looks like a minor corrective rebound to retrace last Thurs (09 Nov) minor steep decline from its current all-time high of 2597. No change, maintain bearish bias below 2597 for another potential minor downleg to test the 2565 medium-term support and a break below it opens up scope for a further potential decline towards  the next support at 2544 (swing low areas of 19/25 Oct 2017).
• Japan 225 – Based on Elliot Wave/fractal analysis, current price action appears to be evolving  in a minor corrective sideways range configuration to retrace last Thurs (09 Nov) steep decline from its high of 23420 before another round of potential bearish impulsive wave sequence (downleg) materialises. Maintain bearish bias with an adjusted key short-term resistance now at 22800 (former minor swing low of 08 Nov 2017 + upper limit of the minor sideways range in place since last Thurs, 09 Nov U.S. session low + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 09 Nov 2017 high to its intraday low of 22315 printed in the U.S. session) for another potential downleg to retest 22425/22315 before targeting the 22200/22100 medium-term support zone.
• Hong Kong 50 – Rallied as expected in today (13 Nov) early Asian session and right now it is coming close to the potential “last push up sequence target ” which is the 29300 medium-term resistance (see weekly technical outlook) as per highlighted in our previous report. Prefer to turn neutral now between 29300 & 28970 (10 Nov 2017 minor swing low).
• Australia 200 –  No change, 6010 remains the key short-term support to maintain bullish bias for a further potential push up towards 6065 medium-term resistance. Only a break above 6065 is likely to open up scope for an extended up move to target 6130 next (upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 04 Oct 2017 low + 1.00 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 04 Oct low to 20 Oct 2017 low projected from 27 Oct 2017 low).
• Germany 30 –  Based on Elliot Wave/fractal analysis, current price action appears to be evolving  in a minor corrective sideways range configuration to retrace last Thurs (09 Nov) steep decline from its high of 13418 before another round of potential bearish impulsive wave sequence (downleg) materialises. Maintain bearish bias with an adjusted key short-term resistance now at 13260 (former upper limit of the minor congestion zone of 27/31 Oct 2017 + close to the upper limit of the minor sideways range in place since 09 Nov 2017 low + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 09 Nov 2017 high of 13418 to its intraday low of 13106) for another potential downleg towards the next intermediate supports at 13050 follow by 12940/900 next.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform

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