Matt Weller CFA, CMT
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2025’s Biggest Surprise: Could China’s Economy Fall Off a Cliff?
Chinese consumer confidence is weak, domestic consumption remains muted, and unemployment among youth has surged, raising concerns about unrest and long-term stagnation.
FOMC Preview: Cut Then “Prudent Pause” from Powell?
EUR/USD has carved out a narrow range between 1.0470 and 1.0600 and unless the Fed delivers a meaningful surprise of some sort, that range may carry over.
BOC Recap: USD/CAD Drops as Macklem Hints at Gradual Cuts in 2025
USD/CAD fell back toward key horizontal support near 141.00 as BOC Governor Macklem hinted at a 2025 pause in the interest rate cutting cycle
US CPI Preview: Could a HOT Inflation Report Revive a Fed Pause?
The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25bps regardless of the CPI reading, though a hotter-than-expected print could certainly raise some questions for USD/CAD
Bitcoin Breaks $100K! Where Next? Cryptoasset Weekly Update (December 6, 2024)
Bitcoin broke $100K…only to fall a quick -14% to below $90K in a mini “flash crash” before recovering back above $100K. What are the levels to watch now?
NFP Preview: Could a Strong Jobs Report Put a December Fed Pause in Play?
The Fed is likely, but not certain, to cut interest rates by 25bps later this month, and a strong NFP report could reopen the door for close decision.
US Dollar: A Contrarian Perspective on How Trump’s Second Term Could Weaken the USD
How a shift in trade policy, the extension of tax cuts, the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and potential threats to Federal Reserve independence could pave the way for a weaker greenback under Trump.
S&P 500 Melt-Up? The Data-Driven Case for SPX Upside in December
What are the odds of a Deecember melt up in the S&P 500?
Forex Seasonality – December 2024: Can EUR/USD and AUD/USD Rally?
EUR/USD and AUD/USD are heading into their strongest month, hinting at rally potential after November drops.
Euro Parity: What Will it Take to Drive the EUR/USD to 1.00?
While parity is just a number in theory, it often carries significant psychological and economic weight - see what it might take to drive to EUR/USD to 1.00!
WTI Forecast: Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Drives Crude Oil Back Toward $69
How could a potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire impact oil prices and what are the key levels to watch?