Canadian jobs data in-line; Full time jobs strong
With the 1st of April last Friday, Canada waited until the next week (today) to release its March jobs data. The headline print was an additional 72,500 jobs added to the Canadian economy vs an estimate of +80,000. However, what makes this number strong is that the amount of full-time jobs was +92,700 vs a loss of 29,300 part-time jobs. Average hourly earnings up ticked to 3.4% YoY in March vs 3.3% YoY in February. In addition, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.3% vs a reading of 5.5% prior. Clearly the jobs data is on the right path, and this will play a big part in the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision next week. The question is not “if” the BOC will hike, but rather by “how much” will it hike: 25bps or 50bps?
USD/CAD has been trading in a range between 1.2450 and 1.2900 (green lines) since mid-November 2021. In mid-December, price tried to break through the top of the sideways channel and as recent as last week, the pair tried to break through the bottom of the channel, failing both times. USD/CAD formed a hammer on April 5th, and price has been moving higher since. The pair is currently trading near horizontal resistance, an upward sloping trendline dating to June 1st, 2021, and the 200 Day Moving Average, near 1.2620.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
Trade USD/CAD now: Login or Open a new account!
• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
On a 240-minute timeframe, USD/CAD has broken above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the highs of March 15th to the lows of April 5th, near 1.2581. First resistance above the 200 Day Moving Average (see daily) is at the 50% retracement from the same timeframe near 1.2637. 1.2653 has also been an important support level in the past, which now acts as resistance. Above there, resistance is at the 50-Day Moving Average (see daily) at 1.2664. However, notice that the RSI on the 240-minute timeframe is in overbought territory. Support is at today’s low of 1.2575 and then horizontal support at 1.2540. Below there, there is room for price to fall to the lows from April 5th at 1.2403.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
The Canadian Employment change for March was roughly in line with expectations today, however the number of full-time jobs over part-time jobs makes the headline print stronger. The Bank of Canada will take this information into account when it meets next week. But will it be enough for the central bank to hike 50bps?
Learn more about forex trading opportunities.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.
ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.
City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.
The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.
The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
© City Index 2024