Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Bulls Eye Resistance

Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels

• USD/CAD snaps five-week winning streak- Trump election rally closes well-off weekly low
• November opening-range breakout in focus- US inflation data on tap
• Resistance 1.3984/90 (key), 1.4115, 1.4189– Support ~1.3820, 1.3753/73 (key), 1.3611/53

The US Dollar snapped a five-week winning streak against the Canadian Dollar on Friday with USD/CAD off just 0.3% despite a weekly range of 1%. The mid-week election rally takes price back above a key pivot zone with the November opening-range now set just above uptrend support. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly   

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CAD was approaching key technical resistance, “into the 1.39-handle and the focus is on a weekly close above this threshold. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to the 1.3745 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above this pivot zone needed to keep the focus on a rally towards 1.3990- an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection If reached.”

USD/CAD ripped higher later that week with a close above the 1.39-handle exhausting into uptrend resistance. Price was on the defensive into the start of this week with the median-line catching the intraweek losses. The post-election US Dollar rally fueled a reversal of more than 0.9% with USD/CAD poised to close the week back above the 1.3881/99 pivot zone - a region defined by the 2022 high-week close (HWC) and the April high-close (HC).

Note that the November opening-range is now defined by this week’s candle with key resistance still within striking distance just higher at the 2020 March reversal close / 100% extension of the 2023 advance at 1.3984/99- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Support rests along the median-line and is backed by the 38.2% retracement of the September rally / April high-close (HC) at 1.3753/73. A break / close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high was registered with key support / broader bullish invalidation at 1.3612/53- a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 2023 high-week close (HWC).

A topside breach / close above the 75% parallel would be needed to mark uptrend resumption towards subsequent resistance objectives at the 2016 HWC at 1.4115 and the 100% extension of the December rally at 1.4189- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: USD/CAD has broken above a major pivot zone with the monthly opening-range now set just above slope support- look for the breakout. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to this week’s low IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close above 1.3990 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex