Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Bears Charge 6600

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

AUD/USD four-week sell-off extending more than 4.7% off yearly highs
Australian Dollar approaching key pivot zone into monthly close- risk for price inflection
Resistance 6707/15, 6759, 6707/18 (key)– Support 6622/28, 6575-6600 (key), 6497

The Australian Dollar plummeted nearly 5% off the highs with AUD/USD now approaching technical support into the monthly downtrend. Although the threat near-term remains weighted to the downside, the focus is on possible reaction just lower with the bears vulnerable into 6600. These are the updated targets an invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD short-term technical charts into the close of the month.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that, “A reversal off uptrend resistance is now testing trend support- looking for a reaction into the median-line. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – rallies would need to be limited to 6819 IF price is heading lower here with a break below 6715 needed to threaten a larger correction / suggest a more significant high was registered last week.”

Aussie rallied for the next two-days with price registering in intraday high at 6759 before reversing sharply lower. The break below 6715 two-days later marked downtrend resumption with AUD/USD plunging more than 4.3% from the October open. The decline is now approaching key technical hurdles, and the focus is on possible downside exhaustion / price inflection into support just lower.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD continuing to trade within the confines the descending pitchfork extending we’ve been tracking off the late-September highs. Two zones of interest remain paramount over the next few days at the 200-day moving average / September low at 6622/28 and the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 6575-6600- both areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. A break / close blow this key pivot zone would threaten another bout of accelerated losses towards the yearly low-day close (LDC) at 6497.

Resistance remains unchanged at the objective weekly open / 38.2% retracement at 6707/15 and a breach / close above this threshold would be needed to invalidate the monthly downtrend. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the July high-day close (HDC) at 6759 and a major technical confluence at 6807/19- a close above this level would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / mark resumption of the broader August uptrend.

Bottom line: A four week sell-off from fresh yearly highs is now approaching major technical support- looking for a reaction down here. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards the lower parallels- rallies would need to be limited by 6700 IF price is heading for a break lower with a close below 6575 needed to fuel the next leg.

Keep in mind we get key inflation data from the US and Australia next week with US non-farm payrolls on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the monthly cross here and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.