AUD/USD Vulnerable amid Break Below November Opening Range
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD
AUD/USD breaks below the opening range for November to register a fresh monthly low (0.6480), but data prints coming out of Australia may curb the recent decline in the exchange rate as Australia’s Employment report is anticipated to show a further expansion in job growth.
AUD/USD Vulnerable amid Break Below November Opening Range
AUD/USD extends the decline from earlier this week despite the limited reaction to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the exchange rate may continue to give back the rebound from the yearly low (0.6349) as it carves a series of lower highs and lows.
Australia Economic Calendar
Nevertheless, Australia is expected to add 25.0K jobs in October following the 64.1K expansion the month prior, while the Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.1% during the same period.
The ongoing expansion in employment may keep the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the sidelines as ‘sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority,’ and the central bank may keep the cash rate at 4.35% at its last meeting for 2024 as ‘policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range.’
With that said, a positive development may generate a bullish reaction in the Australian Dollar as it raises the RBA’s scope to retain the current policy, but a weaker-than-expected employment report may drag on the exchange rate as it puts pressure on the central bank to implement lower interest rates.
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
- AUD/USD fails to hold within the opening range for November as it carves a series of lower highs and lows, with a close below the 0.6510 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6520 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) zone raising the scope for a move towards the 0.6380 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6410 (50% Fibonacci extension) region.
- Next area of interest comes in around the yearly low (0.6349) but AUD/USD may attempt to retrace the decline from earlier this week as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above oversold territory.
- Need a move back above the 0.6590 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6600 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) zone for AUD/USD to negate the bearish price series, with the next region of interest coming in around the monthly high (0.6688).
Additional Market Outlooks
US Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD on Cusp of Testing 2022 High
GBP/USD Outlook Hinges on Break of Monthly Opening Range
US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Defends Post-US Election Rally
US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Opening Range in Focus Ahead of US CPI
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on X at @DavidJSong
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.
ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.
City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.
The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.
The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.
This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
© City Index 2024