Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA muted after Trump trade threats

US futures

Dow future 0.15% at 43528

S&P futures 0.03% at 5984

Nasdaq futures -0.09% at 21335

In Europe

FTSE 0.60% at 8711

Dax 0.57% at 22538

Trump reiterates Mexico, Canada trade tariff threat
US consumer confidence data is due later
Nvidia and Intel fall on reports of China export restrictions
Oil slips, giving back yesterday’s gains

Stocks cautious after Trump’s threat

US stocks are muted amid a cautious mood after President Trump reaffirmed the possibility of tariffs on Mexico and Canada and ahead of consumer confidence data.

The proposed 25% trade tariffs were initially delayed in early February as Trump leveraged the threat for neighbouring countries to increase border control. However, they could still be applied next Monday.

The equities market hasn't sold off in the same way it did at the end of January, suggesting that the market still considers this negotiation leverage rather than something that Trump will press ahead with. The market is only pricing in a moderate risk of the trade tariffs happening.

The crypto and FX market appears to be having more of a reaction than the equities markets.

Looking ahead, attention will be on U.S. consumer confidence data, which is expected to weaken to 102.5 in February, down from 104.1. A drop toward the 100 level could trigger a market reaction, particularly following the weaker-than-expected University of Michigan sentiment data at the end of last week.

Corporate news

Nvidia and Intel are falling after reports that the Trump administration was considering toughening controls on semiconductor technology exports to China.

Crypto-related stocks such as Strategy and Coinbase are falling sharply amid a slump in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin trades 5% lower over the past 24 hours.

Home Depot is falling after revealing weaker-than-expected comparable sales growth for 2026 amid an uncertain operating environment.

Dow Jones forecast – technical analysis.

Dow Jones fell from around 44,500 before finding support at 43,350. The move below the 50 SMA and the RSI below 50 keeps sellers hopeful of further losses. Sellers will need to take out 44,350 to extend the bearish move towards 43k and 42,250. Should the 43,350 support hold, buyers could look to rise back above the 50 SMA towards 44k before bringing 45k back into focus.

FX markets – USD falls, EUR/USD rises

The USD is falling, tracking US treasury yields lower after Trump’s trade tariff announcements fueled concerns over the outlook for the US economy.

EUR/USD is rising, capitalising on the weaker USD after German GDP data showed a contraction of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of the year. Negotiated wage rates also declined in Q4 to 4.12%, down from 5.43%. The slowdown is expected to continue in 2025.

GBP/USD is rising amid a weaker USD and despite dovish commentary from BoE policymaker Swati Dhingra. Dhingra supports a quicker reduction to interest rates amid weak consumption, which is showing no signs of improving. In the February meeting, Dhingra voted to cut rates by 50 bps.

Oil edges lower with sanctions in focus

Oil prices are posting small losses after a modest gain yesterday. Investors weigh up Iranian sanctions and the demand outlook ahead of API inventory data later today.

Oil prices were slightly boosted yesterday after fresh US sanctions were applied to Iranian oil, raising concerns over tighter global supply. Trump hit Iran with a second set of sanctions this month as he aims to bring Iranian oil exports to zero.

Separately, investors are monitoring peace talks over Ukraine. Should the Russian invasion end, US sanctions on Russia could be dropped, bringing more oil to the markets.

Meanwhile, the demand outlook is wavering on concerns that a global trade war could slow growth. US API oil inventory data is due later.

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